Are protesters winning in Georgia, and what might change soon?
Yurii Panchenko, a European Pravda editor, spoke with Gela Vasadze, a Georgian political analyst of the Georgian Strategic Analysis Center, about the ongoing protests in Georgia.
How likely are these protests to succeed? What is the broader context in the country?
Read more in the article – Russian instructors and an alternative center of power: a view from Tbilisi on the protests in Georgia.
The government's decision to suspend negotiations with the EU, despite the unresolved protests against election fraud, appears illogical at first glance. Why escalate tensions now? There are two possible explanations.
One theory suggests the ruling party, Georgian Dream, is insulted by a recent European Parliament resolution (it called for snap elections and sanctions against key party figures – ed.).
Alternatively, the government may be intentionally provoking violence to suppress civil society, opposition parties and individual freedoms.
Protesters are adapting to confrontations with the police, reducing opportunities for law enforcement to act unlawfully.
At the same time, the police are also adjusting to this new reality, and while the state apparatus still supports the government, signs of erosion are beginning to appear.
There are reports of isolated resignations within the security forces and claims that many of the police deployed at Rustaveli Avenue are recently trained recruits, allegedly instructed by Russian trainers at the Vaziani military base.
The military, dissatisfied with the government, remains formally loyal but lacks support for Russia. If the government resorts to violence against citizens, this loyalty may waver.
There are reports that the central police stations refused to accept detainees because they had been beaten up. Eventually, they were forced to be taken to other detention centers, and some had to be taken to hospitals.
The situation is similar with the army, which is very dissatisfied with the authorities.
The reason is simple: it is almost impossible to find supporters of Russia within the Georgian military.
While the army remains loyal to the government as a security institution, this loyalty could disappear if the authorities were to use violence against ordinary citizens.
Many Georgians believe that if the revolution succeeds, Russia will initiate military action. However, this is not a matter of belief but knowledge.
Russia is not prepared for direct military aggression against Georgia. Furthermore, it lacks the additional military resources necessary to deploy there.
The stance of Western countries is of utmost importance.
If the West recognises these elections and effectively tells Georgian Dream, "Okay, you're not great, but we'll accept you as you are," the protests will lose the ability to progress further.
For example, if the state apparatus observes such a position from the West, would it be willing to side with an alternative political center? Clearly not.
The upcoming presidential elections, scheduled for 14 December, could serve as a catalyst for the protests. President Salome Zourabichvili could emerge as an alternative focal point for the state apparatus.