Why combating Russian election interference gives Romania's old guard a chance
Romania is facing a unique situation. On 6 December, just two days before the second round of the presidential election and while overseas voting had already started, the Constitutional Court annulled the first round results.
This decision is all the more surprising given that only three days earlier, on 3 December, the Court had validated the first-round results.
The catalyst for this reversal was the release of declassified documents from the Supreme Council of National Defence.
Read more about Romania's complex political landscape in the article by Serhii Herasymchuk and Rostyslav Klimov of the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council – Coup d'état or defence against Russia? Explaining the annulment of Romania’s presidential election results.
On 4 December, Romania’s intelligence service "revealed an aggressive promotional campaign, in violation of electoral legislation, and an exploitation of algorithms."
Additionally, law enforcement recorded approximately 85,000 cyberattacks targeting IT infrastructure supporting the election process.
Romanian intelligence concluded that hybrid attacks from Russia were conducted against the country. The declassified data also revealed evidence of foreign interference in favour of independent candidate Călin Georgescu.
Notably, Georgescu was the surprise frontrunner in the first round. An anti-establishment populist overlooked by pollsters, he unexpectedly came in first, even outperforming exit poll predictions.
In the second round, Georgescu was set to face Elena Lasconi, the leader of the pro-European Save Romania Union (USR). Lasconi’s first-round victory was also a surprise, as she narrowly surpassed Romania’s current Prime Minister, Marcel Ciolacu.
Unsurprisingly, the Constitutional Court’s decision provoked backlash from both second-round contenders.
However, the ruling dealt the most significant blow to Romania’s already unstable political system.
The only bright spot in this turmoil is the pro-European majority formed after parliamentary elections, comprising the PSD, PNL, USR, UDMR, and representatives of national minorities.
Yet, the Court's decision risks making this coalition as turbulent as it was during 2022–2024.
One of the first points of contention among coalition members could be the appointment of the Senate President. According to Romania’s Constitution, this individual will temporarily act as President after Klaus Iohannis’s term ends until a new President is elected.
Another risk factor is the undermined legitimacy of the newly elected parliament. Some analysts are already questioning whether the Russians, having "hacked" the presidential election, might have also influenced the parliamentary vote.
This argument could spark calls for dissolving parliament and holding snap elections.
The annulment of the first-round presidential election results also poses a broader risk of destabilising Romania.
Far-right forces may mobilise their supporters for large-scale protests and demonstrations.
The Constitutional Court's radical decision could also be weaponised by populists as evidence that mainstream pro-European parties like the PNL and PSD are working against the Romanian people.
It’s clear that Romania faces one of the most challenging periods in its modern history.