Estonian intelligence outlines challenges posed to Moscow by latest Ukrainian offensive in Russia's Kursk Oblast

Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre has reported that Ukraine's recent offensive in Russia's Kursk Oblast has revealed Moscow's inability to reclaim these territories.

As reported by Estonian public broadcaster ERR, despite Ukraine's successful deep strikes against Russia, Moscow continues to hold the tactical initiative.

"Although the success of the [Kursk] raid has been tactical in nature, it has again attracted much public attention and rubbed a decent amount of salt in the open wound of the Russian military leadership – the inability to retake the occupied areas of Kursk Oblast," Ants Kiviselg, Head of Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, said.

He stated that Russia's failure in Kursk Oblast had been further exacerbated by Ukraine's precision strikes on the command posts of the 76th Air Assault Division and the 810th Marine Brigade, which resulted in the deaths and injuries of several high-ranking officers, severely compromising the command of these units.

At the same time, Kiviselg pointed out that Russia has failed to achieve any military success despite involving the North Korean contingent in the fighting against Ukraine.

He added that, in a broader context, both the situation in Kursk Oblast and the surrender and withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria remain unresolved.

"This further increases the pressure on the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces. It also increases the pressure on Putin himself from the Russian society," Kiviselg said.

Estonia's spy chief pointed out that Ukraine's precision strikes on Russian infrastructure are only worsening pessimism in Russia.

Ukraine attacked the Novatrans oil terminal in the port of Ust-Luga in Russia's Leningrad Oblast on the night of 3-4 January, followed by a strike on 8 January against an oil depot in Engels used to refuel strategic bombers.

"The consequences of this successful attack are still being dealt with, which greatly affects the use of these aircraft for large-scale cruise missile strikes against Ukraine," Kiviselg said.

He also pointed out that Russian forces had taken control of Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast and advanced to the west.

In addition, Russia has increased pressure on the village of Vozdvyzhenka, which jeopardises the security of the road linking the settlements of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka.

Russian troops also advanced towards Toretsk. On the Lyman front, the Russians managed to cross the Zherebets River and, on both sides of the river, began to put pressure on the crossings near the village of Terny.

Nevertheless, Ukraine's defences are holding and Russia's conquest of each square kilometre of Ukrainian territory continues to cost it at least 100 lives, he concluded.

Earlier, UK Defence Intelligence analysed the fighting in Russia's Kursk Oblast and Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast.

Major General Christian Freuding, the head of the Bundeswehr's Situation Center Ukraine at the German Ministry of Defence, predicted that Pokrovsk would have to be abandoned at the end of the year or in early 2025.