Will Poland's presidential campaign affect relations with Ukraine?
On 18 May, the first round of the presidential election is set to be held in Poland.
Everything suggests that the outcome will hinge on the contest between two main candidates: Rafał Trzaskowski, backed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s political coalition Civic Coalition, and Karol Nawrocki, portrayed as a "people's candidate" but was, in fact, nominated and supported by the opposition party Law and Justice (PiS).
Read more whether the "Ukraine issue," particularly the complex historical disputes, will play a significant role in the campaign in the article by Edwin Bendyk, Chairman Of The Board at Stefan Batory Foundation (Warsaw) – Poland in election fever: will relations with Ukraine suffer?
Rafał Trzaskowski is the mayor of Warsaw, while Karol Nawrocki heads Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, an institution responsible for shaping the country’s historical narrative.
Recently, Nawrocki stated in an interview that he does not envision Ukraine joining the EU or NATO due to historical disagreements and responsibility for the Volyn tragedy. [The Volyn (Volhynia) tragedy was a series of events that led to the ethnic cleansing of the Polish and Ukrainian populations in 1943 during World War II. It was part of a long-standing rivalry between Ukrainians and Poles in what is now Ukraine's west. Poland considers the Volyn tragedy a genocide of Poles – ed.]
This statement quickly drew a reaction from Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who asked PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński whether he endorsed his protégé’s position. Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also promptly responded. Unsurprisingly, the controversy was widely covered by Russian media.
However, Nawrocki has little chance of winning the presidency or even securing enough votes to advance to the second round unless he expands his appeal beyond his current achievements.
The central theme of the election is not history but Poland’s future, and candidates must persuade the majority of Poles of their vision for it.
For many Poles, history matters. The issue of remembrance of the Volyn tragedy is one that unites society across political divides. However, this issue alone will not determine electoral victory.
What is at stake is the potential support of more radical voters from Confederation in a possible second round. Therefore, the rhetoric of the Law and Justice candidate encompasses not only Volyn and Ukraine but also topics like abortion laws, with an anti-abortion stance stricter than the one recently presented by Jarosław Kaczyński.
Undoubtedly, the most pressing issue for Polish society today is security. That is why Rafał Trzaskowski, during a December convention in Gliwice, assured voters that he would not allow a war.
Poles are concerned not only about military security but also about material and social well-being.
As a result, public debates and political disputes frequently center around issues like food prices, whether they were higher under the previous PiS government or now, under Donald Tusk’s leadership.
Ukraine will not occupy a prominent place in the list of key issues shaping the presidential campaign, unless a new incident similar to the one in August last year occurs, when then-Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba inadvertently fueled tensions.
So whether Ukrainian topics will emerge during the presidential campaign, strengthening or harming bilateral relations, will depend not only on developments in Poland but also in Ukraine.
A good opportunity to discuss these topics will be the 17th Ukraine-Poland Forum, organised on 17-18 January in Kyiv by the International Renaissance Foundation and the Stefan Batory Foundation.