Poland wants to become new European leader. Is it realistic and what will it mean for Ukraine?

Not only Ukraine, but also Europe places high expectations on the Polish presidency over the Council of the EU.

Six months in charge of one of the European institutions is not enough to succeed, but the hopes directed at Poland go beyond this technocratic dimension.

They are as much a reflection of the leadership vacuum in Europe that Warsaw – for who else? – would have to fill, given country's growing economic and geopolitical pro-EU position.

But there are areas where Warsaw's European policy is also being redefined: the EU's defence policy, the EU enlargement and strengthening the EU's global competitiveness based on a low-carbon economy.

Read more about how Poland plans to solve all these issues and whether it is capable of being the real EU leader in the article by Piotr Buras and Michał Matlak of ECFR – Poland's turn to lead: Tusk's challenge to Germany and the future of Ukraine in the EU.

Poland has been the biggest beneficiary of European Union membership.

Poland's success in the Union was due to the relative solidity of its new institutions, social consensus, but also an economic model based on low labour costs.

This model is running out of steam. Therefore, the ability of Poland to benefit from integration depends on whether Poland manages to shape changing EU's priorities with its own long-term modernisation strategy.

Depending on the scenario, future European integration can become again a key driver of Poland's development, it may also deepen country's weakness.

The Polish Presidency will start shaping this way.

A key challenge will be the financing of European defence.

Another fundamental issue that is closely related to the development of European defence capabilities is the role of the EU in peace negotiations and possible security guarantees for Ukraine. Poland's position is that an invitation to join NATO would be the best solution.

At the same time, the gradual integration of Ukraine into the European market will be a key element of the EU's policy towards Ukraine in the pre-accession period. Finding the right balance will be a task of high political sensitivity in Poland that may generate tensions and crises also in the years to come.

This deterioration of relations will be partly mitigated during the Polish Presidency: the first cluster in the negotiations (fundamentals) will probably be opened, perhaps the opening of the cluster on foreign and security policy will be accelerated.

The story of Polish development over the last thirty years contrasts with the trajectory of economic development in the Union as a whole: Poland was one of the fastest-growing countries in the world, while other EU countries were losing ground. Meanwhile it certainly was the model of functioning of the Union who helped Poland in this.

Decarbonisation, another EU's new priority, remains a particularly contentious issue in Poland whose energy system that is still the most coal-dependent in Europe.

Although Poland has made notable strides in recent years, particularly in renewable energy investments and emissions reductions, the pace of change has been insufficient given the scale of the challenges and the need to align with EU policies.

This lag represents perhaps the most significant shortcoming of Poland's two decades of EU membership.

In the intergovernmental dimension, which is crucial for the functioning of the Union, the partnership between France and Germany has always been considered particularly important. This partnership is in crisis today (both countries are also in crisis internally), but other countries' attitudes to Franco-German leadership are also changing.

At this background, Poland demanding a place at the adult table. One of Poland's strengths is Donald Tusk's personal position: he is comfortable at the intergovernmental level.

So far, the Weimar Triangle with France and Germany remains the most important format of international cooperation for Poland, although this cooperation faces many problems – not least because of the difficulties in Franco-German relations.

Poland assumes the Presidency of the Council of the EU not only at a crucial moment for Europe, but also in a situation where Poland also re-evaluate its European policy. Poland's position is that an invitation to join NATO would be the best solution.

At the same time, expectations are focused on Poland to fill the leadership gap that the Union so badly needs today. Warsaw certainly has many strong assets to take on such a role.

No less important is the fact that the history of Europe is being played out today in Central and Eastern Europe, as the war in Ukraine will largely determine the future of the continent and its integration.