How Macron managed to split the left and what it means for France’s exit from crisis

French President Emmanuel Macron has achieved a significant victory in the domestic politics for the first time in a long while.

The left-wing opposition failed to oust the government of François Bayrou, and, notably, Macron succeeded in fracturing the bloc of left-wing opposition parties.

Read more in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor – Macron's interim victory: how the French government survived the no-confidence vote.

On Thursday, 16 January, France's National Assembly rejected a no-confidence vote against François Bayrou's government, with only 131 MPs voting in favour, far short of the 288 needed to pass.

When the vote took place, Bayrou had only been in office for 35 days. The left-wing opposition’s eagerness to quickly vote on the no-confidence motion backfired, as the new government had yet to face significant criticisms.

The motion was introduced by three of the four parties in the New Popular Bloc: the far-left Unsubmissive France, the Communists, and the Greens. The Socialists, the bloc's second-largest party, hesitated and eventually refrained from supporting the no-confidence vote in exchange for concessions from the government.

These concessions included cancelling the planned reduction of 4,000 teaching positions, allocating an additional €1 billion for healthcare, scrapping the proposed extension of sick pay suspensions for civil servants, and agreeing to certain tax increases.

The Socialists concluded that these achievements would be easier to "sell" to their voters and opted out of the no-confidence vote.

The failure of the no-confidence motion dealt a personal blow to Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left *Unsubmissive France*. Mélenchon, now vowing revenge against the Socialists, has deepened the internal rift within the opposition, which could bolster the government's chances of surviving future no-confidence votes.

"Socialists are destroying the New Popular Bloc. But only they have capitulated. The other three parties will continue the fight," commented Mélenchon.

Although the Socialists have entered limited cooperation, they have not fully joined Macron's governing coalition. Following the snap parliamentary elections in summer 2024, Macron’s key idea was to form a Republican Coalition uniting centrists, moderate conservatives, and moderate leftists – a goal that is still valid.

Does this failed no-confidence vote mean Bayrou’s government is safe from ouster? Not at all.

Most analysts view the 16 January vote as a dress rehearsal for the real test: passing the 2025 state budget.

An updated budget proposal is expected to be voted on by late January or early February. However, as with its predecessor, the current government lacks a parliamentary majority, making a favourable budget vote unlikely.

The only viable option is to invoke the special procedure outlined in Article 49.3 of the Constitution. This rule allows laws to be passed without a parliamentary vote but puts the government at risk of another no-confidence motion.

The involvement of the Socialists in negotiations provides Bayrou’s government with a slim chance.

While the Socialists are unlikely to vote for the budget to avoid taking responsibility, they may abstain from a no-confidence vote. Having secured concessions from the government, they would have little incentive to see the government fall and jeopardise their gains.