Why Bulgaria's new pro-Western government could be a problem for Ukraine
The political crisis in Bulgaria, which had lasted at least since March 2024, formally ended on 15 January.
The new government was formed by three ideologically opposing parties: the conservative Euro-Atlantic GERB-SDS coalition, the populist isolationist party There Is Such a People (ITN), and the pro-Russian Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP).
Negotiation difficulties indirectly affected Bulgarian-Ukrainian relations.
In December, Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev did not sign a security agreement with Ukraine due to demands from Bulgarian National Assembly representatives to wait for the formation of the new government.
Does the new Bulgarian government pose a threat to relations with Ukraine? Read more in the article by Volodymyr-Nazarii Havrish and Serhii Herasymchuk of the Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism – A hidden threat to Ukraine: will the new Bulgarian government maintain its pro-Western course?
Could a Bulgarian government without pro-Russian participants have been expected? Or at least one where pro-Western forces hold stronger positions?
Such an outcome was possible. However, negotiations with Democratic Bulgaria were suspended because they opposed seeing GERB-SDS party representatives – either party leader Boyko Borissov or Rosen Zhelyazkov – as prime minister.
As a result, the coalition was formed without Democratic Bulgaria and even without a formal majority.
So the current government was created by three ideologically opposing parties and must also meet the demands of a fourth party. Without their support, it could face a vote of no confidence at any time. This makes the government unstable.
The new Bulgarian government consists of 19 ministries.
Some ministries are headed by independent leaders "inherited" from the previous caretaker government led by Dimitar Glavchev. These include critical posts for Ukraine: the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food, and the Ministry of Electronic Governance.
Several ministers have previously expressed support for Ukraine.
Minister of Defence Atanas Zapryanov has consistently supported Ukraine. Justice Minister Georgi Valentinov Georgiev received Ukraine’s Order of Merit (III degree) in 2023. Tourism Minister Miroslav Borshosh called for greater Bulgarian assistance to Ukraine during the early days of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
The new government though also includes figures with ambiguous or unfriendly attitudes toward Ukraine.
Labour and Social Policy Minister Borislav Gutsanov welcomed GERB's suggestion to postpone the signing of the security agreement. Interior Minister Daniel Mitov advocated delaying the agreement with Ukraine until a new government was elected. However, he also acknowledged that the agreement should have been signed years ago.
Encouragingly, Defence Minister Atanas Zapryanov assured that Bulgaria would continue supporting Ukraine and that the security agreement would soon return to the agenda.
Nevertheless, despite the presence of Ukraine's allies in the new Bulgarian government, the overall trajectory of events aligns with the Kremlin's interests.
Russia’s strategic goal is not merely the victory of pro-Russian forces but also the destabilisation of the region – discrediting national elites and the electoral process in EU countries.