How Putin is destroying relations with a key ally

Upon receiving news of a plane crash in Aktau, the Azerbaijani president’s aircraft made a symbolic turn over Russia.

Ilham Aliyev cancelled his trip to the summit in St. Petersburg and returned to Baku. This gesture reflects Azerbaijan's stance toward the crash and, more importantly, Russia's reaction to it.

Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia are undergoing significant change.

Read more about these changes in the article by Sergey Danilov, deputy director of the Centre for Middle East Studies (Kyiv) – Aliyev's turn: how the plane crash and Russian lies change Azerbaijan-Russia relations.

Azerbaijani experts on YouTube have called on the Russian side and Vladimir Putin personally to resolve the issue with a single phone call.

However, Moscow predictably chose a different approach: delaying and spreading numerous false narratives.

The decoding of the first flight recorder indicates that the Russian leadership knew all the details of the incident from the very beginning.

Conversations with air traffic controllers reveal Russia’s cynical disregard for the safety of those on board.

Regardless of the Kremlin’s next steps, a deep rift has formed in Azerbaijan-Russia relations.

The plane crash shocked Azerbaijani society, which has united in the face of this tragedy.

As all Azerbaijani experts note, this incident has shattered the "sincerity" and trust in Russia and its leadership that had developed over recent years.

Official Baku had invested heavily in ensuring the most predictable relationship with Russia, despite criticism and associated risks.

Now, Azerbaijani experts openly state that relations with Russia will pause until the investigation is concluded.

Azerbaijan’s next steps depend on whether Moscow accepts the investigation's findings and meets Baku's demands: acknowledging the plane was shot down by Russian air defences, punishing those responsible, and compensating the victims.

Baku is likely to continue joint projects with Russia, but only those beneficial to Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, projects that primarily benefit Russia will be put on hold.

Of course, the complex security situation in the region and mutual dependencies leave the Kremlin with significant leverage over Baku.

A full-blown confrontation would not benefit Azerbaijan.

However, neither country can change its behaviour in this situation. Baku seems to be bracing for worst-case scenarios.

Finding itself squeezed between Iran and Russia without fully resolving its relations with Armenia is dangerous for Azerbaijan.

A near-stalemate has emerged: Baku cannot ignore Russia’s manipulations publicly, while Moscow cannot stop manipulating because it does not view Azerbaijan as an equal partner. The plane crash only revealed this attitude.

For Russia, Azerbaijan has become a reluctant partner in the context of sanctions and isolation. Yet, imperial attitudes persist, often overriding rational interests.