Politico: Europe is cautiously optimistic about Trump's rhetoric around Ukraine
European allies and other supporters of Ukraine have welcomed US President Donald Trump's threats to impose new tariffs and sanctions on Moscow if it does not agree to end the war.
As reported by Politico, Ukraine's supporters see Trump's threats more broadly as evidence that he understands the stakes of the war as well as they do and will not abandon Ukraine – or NATO allies – in his future relations with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
"I would be lying if we say we are not nervous" about Trump’s return, said a European ambassador who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
"We are preparing for a lot of headaches, but one area where I am going to risk being cautiously optimistic on is Ukraine and NATO," he said.
Pro-Ukrainian Republicans point to the fact that in 2019, Trump backed out of a major nuclear deal with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, despite all the hype and spectacle surrounding the historic summit. He may do the same in his talks with Putin over Ukraine.
"He gets the stakes with Putin. He knows a bad deal when he sees one and can walk away again," said one administration official, who requested anonymity.
Another person familiar with Trump's stance on Ukraine, who requested anonymity, said the president's initial comments about ending the war should be taken seriously. According to the source, his efforts to put public pressure on Putin and create leverage in the negotiations are in line with his long-standing desire to play a decisive role in any deal.
However, this dose of cautious optimism only goes so far. Tariffs and sanctions are a far cry from the money and arms that the Biden administration has sent to support Ukraine.
Trump has irritated European allies with his fixation on Greenland, as well as his and his allies' open support for far-right political parties in Europe, many of which have ties or proximity to Putin.
"Greenland and interference in UK politics and the German elections is highly concerning," said an EU official, who acknowledged that his initial statements on Russia and the war in Ukraine were "somewhat promising."
Other analysts believe that, unlike former President Joe Biden, Trump does not regard the war as a big threat to global democracy, which raises the possibility that he will accept a bad deal with Putin.
European diplomats are also concerned that any agreement with Putin that ends the fighting in Ukraine will just give Putin time to rearm and regroup his war-weary army, preparing to launch new attacks years from now.
"Trump also has to focus not just on what to give to Putin, but what to give to Zelenskyy, including, first and foremost, effective, lasting security guarantees," said Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia.
The Donald Trump administration is known to be keen to bring an end to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine as soon as possible, although it acknowledges that this could take months.
In the first days of his presidency, Trump threatened Russia with large sanctions and tariffs if it did not agree to a quick peace deal. He also said that he would seek lower oil prices to end the war.
During a discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the American leader held Russia responsible for concluding a peace deal to end its full-scale war against Ukraine.