Why Lithuania is rebuilding ties with China and whether it poses risks for Ukraine

The new Lithuanian government is restoring diplomatic relations with China, marking a shift in foreign policy, though limited to Beijing for now.

No changes are planned regarding Russia. On the contrary, Vilnius pledges to remain a steadfast ally of Kyiv.

Read more in the article by Uliana Krychkivska and Yurii Panchenko of European Pravda – Lithuania ends its conflict with China: how and why Vilnius changes its relations with Russia's partner.

Under the previous conservative government, led by the center-right Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats, Lithuania was at the forefront of imposing sanctions on Russia.

It showed leadership in other areas, such as being the first EU country to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation.

Lithuania’s commitment to promoting democracy led to a sharp diplomatic conflict with China.

In May 2021, Lithuania withdrew from the "17+1" format, a cooperation initiative between China and Central and Eastern European countries.

In summer 2021, Vilnius opened the Taiwanese Representative Office, effectively an embassy for the unrecogniіed state that China views as part of its territory. This move was a significant affront to Beijing.

China retaliated by recalling its ambassador from Lithuania and recommending Vilnius do the same. In November 2024, Lithuania declared three unaccredited staff members of the Chinese diplomatic mission as persona non grata and issued a diplomatic note to Beijing.

However, not all Lithuanians welcomed the government’s stance as a model defender of democracy.

"Why should we impose restrictions and suffer economic losses when other European countries are not doing the same?" This sentiment resonated with many Lithuanians.

The possibility of revisiting relations with China was a topic of discussion among the Social Democrats who came to power in Lithuania during their parliamentary campaign.

And this promise appealed to many voters.

Notably, despite the declared course to restore relations with Beijing, the new government holds varying views on how Lithuania should approach this.

For instance, in Lithuania’s latest four-year government plan, approved by the country’s new parliament on 12 December, China is described as a "growing challenge" to the Baltic state’s foreign and security policy.

The plan also promises to develop economic and cultural ties with Taiwan.

By 2025, Lithuania's newly appointed Prime Minister, Gintautas Paluckas, and the new Foreign Minister, Kęstutis Budrys, had somewhat coordinated their statements on China.

This approach received a positive response from Beijing.

As for Russia, Lithuania will remain our ally under any circumstances.

The likelihood of the country behaving like Orbán’s Hungary or Fico’s Slovakia is zero.

A "Vilnius pivot" should not be expected though. But a course correction?

In unofficial conversations, European and Ukrainian diplomats have expressed concerns that Lithuania might soon cease to be an active "advocate" for Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia.

Such a scenario is possible, but not inevitable. After all, support for Ukraine among Lithuanian society remains consistently high.