Why it is not in Poland’s interest to stall Ukraine’s EU accession and how to resolve disputes

Poland has a vested interest in Ukraine becoming a member of a strong and effective European Union.

Thirty years ago, Poland’s accession to the EU aligned with Germany’s geostrategic and economic interests. Today, similar considerations should shape Poland’s position regarding Ukraine.

Achieving this strategic goal though will require mutual adaptation, and resistance from sectors affected by these changes is inevitable.

Read more about whether a compromise can be reached between Poland and Ukraine, as well as Poland’s priorities in Ukraine’s EU accession process in the article by Jan Truszczyński, Poland’s government representative for EU membership negotiations – Enlargement in Poland’s interest: how should Warsaw’s policy on Ukraine’s EU accession look like.

Over the past two years, Poland has seen farmer protests and border blockades against Ukraine.

Polish agricultural producers and transport companies perceive the EU’s trade and transport liberalisation with Ukraine as an excessive threat to their own competitiveness in the European market.

These and other sectoral issues will require creative and acceptable solutions, but they should not block or significantly delay the strategic goal of Ukraine’s EU accession.

Looking at past EU enlargements, negotiations at each stage have led to solutions that facilitate socio-economic adaptation and public acceptance of further EU enlargement.

There is no reason why an identical outcome cannot be achieved in Ukraine’s membership negotiations.

Ukraine, with its relatively large population, skilled workforce, and diversified economy, has the potential to replicate the success stories of Spain and Poland after joining the EU.

However, Ukraine, and all of us, must undertake substantial efforts before it happens.

A strong pace and consistently good results in Ukrainian reforms could lead to the completion of accession negotiations around 2030.

In the near term, Poland’s ambition should be to open negotiations on the Fundamentals cluster during its EU Council presidency in the first half of 2025.

A predictable and achievable timeline for negotiations is crucial for maintaining motivation and momentum on both sides, especially in Ukraine’s political landscape.

So Poland must work to ensure that the EU-27 establishes a clear timeframe for the negotiations.

Poland should use its voice in the Ukraine-EU negotiation group to prevent a scenario in which only one or several Western Balkan countries are granted EU membership first.

Moreover, it is in Poland’s strategic interest to ensure that none of the EU-27 members exploit the negotiation process to pressure Ukraine into bilateral concessions unrelated to EU accession criteria.

Given the geographical proximity and low language barrier, Poland is naturally positioned to provide Ukraine with technical support in preparing for accession.

While the challenges of the coming years are significant, they are entirely manageable, provided that Ukraine’s EU accession remains a genuine political priority for Kyiv, Warsaw, and other EU capitals.