How the Kremlin is giving up Transnistria to regain control over Moldova
Russia has cut off gas supplies to Moldova, including to the Russian-controlled Transnistria region.
An unprecedented energy and humanitarian crisis is errupting in Transnistria, which is expected to sharply escalate by mid-January and could peak within a month.
Read more to understand what is happening in Transnistria, the Kremlin's goal and what to expect next in the detailed analysis by Sergiy Sydorenko, European Pravda's editor – Why is the Kremlin freezing Transnistria? Details and consequences of Russia's 'gas war' against Moldova.
On the first morning of 2025, all heating plants and the entire private sector in Transnistrian cities were shut off.
Essentially, gas remains only in old apartment buildings where its use is limited to gas stoves, and in a few critical facilities such as parts of hospitals and some kindergartens.
This is temporary though. According to gas engineers in Tiraspol, gas for stoves in the northern part of Transnistria (in cities like Rîbnița, Dubăsari, etc.) will come to an end in 10 days, and in Tiraspol, Bender, and Dnestrovsk – in 20 days.
By February, Transnistria could become a gas free zone, without heating and electricity.
In the southern part of the region lies the Moldovan DRES (Thermal Power Plant) – the only thermal power station in the country that remained under the separatist control after the war on the Dniester. In recent years, it generated 50 to 80% of the electricity consumed by right-bank Moldova in winter.
The primary fuel for DRES is Russian gas (the same free gas that Russia had supplied), so from 1 January 2025, the people of Transnistria stopped supplying electricity to the right bank. Now, right-bank Moldova is buying electricity from Romania.
According to official data, the coal at DRES for generating electricity for the left bank of the Dniester will last for 50 days.
This calculation does not account for the situation when electricity consumption sharply rises, which is exactly what is happening now, with cold weather on the way.
By February, a full-scale humanitarian catastrophe may unfold.
Why? Putin's goal is to create an unbearable, incredible crisis in Moldova and then offer a solution that would convince the West to persuade Ukraine to lift the ban on the transit of Russian gas. However, it must be understood that the Kremlin's chances of success are low.
The second, much more realistic goal of the Kremlin is to influence Moldovan politics ahead of the parliamentary elections, which are set to be held in 2025, no later than autumn, and will determine the government in Moldova for the next four years.
The Kremlin needs to create as many problems as possible for the people of Moldova to maximise their dissatisfaction with the current government. The establishment of a pro-Russian government in Moldova is a goal that justifies all means.
A pro-Russian government would be able to effectively halt not only Moldova's but also Ukraine's European integration, as the EU perceives both countries as a pair. This would also harm Ukraine's defence capabilities.
Much will depend on how Chișinău reacts when (and if) a real humanitarian crisis unfolds in the region.
The EU will play a key role here, as without its support, programmes to assist Transnistria will fail. Ukraine may also take on the role of the force that saves Transnistria from the deepest humanitarian crisis.
Free Russian gas was the foundation of the region's "economy." This means that Transnistria will have no chance of further survival.
Thus, after the transitional period, during which the region will rely on external aid, Chișinău and Tiraspol will be forced to begin the painful process of reintegration.