What can Ukraine expect from Poland after the presidential elections?

The presidential campaign in Poland has officially kicked off and already affects relations with Ukraine.

For Poland itself, the presidential elections (the first round is set to be held 18 May, could be pivotal. They will either solidify the recent shift in power or offer the opposition party Law and Justice (PiS) a chance for a comeback.

Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor has discussed the prospects of the key candidates, the inevitable use of the "Ukrainian factor" in the campaign, and how the new president could impact Kyiv-Warsaw relations with political analyst Michał Potocki of Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.

Read the key points in the summarised article - Ukraine at the center of Polish elections: how the new President will change relations with Kyiv.

Kyiv’s decision to lift the moratorium on search and exhumation work has raised hopes that historical disputes will no longer be such a major source of tension in Ukrainian-Polish relations.

Ukraine remains a key topic in Polish political debates even despite this step, as many presidential candidates are now calling for a reduction in support for Ukrainian refugees.

Experts strongly criticise this rhetoric, pointing out that employed Ukrainians contribute far more to Poland’s budget in taxes than they receive in social benefits.

The reason behind this shift is the battle for voters who support Sławomir Mentzen, the candidate from the far-right Confederation party.

Previously, only Confederation raised anti-Ukrainian topics, but now such narratives have entered the political mainstream.

The current president, Andrzej Duda, is considered a very pro-Ukrainian politician.

If Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate from the ruling Civic Coalition, wins, Poland’s policy towards Ukraine is unlikely to change significantly compared to Duda’s presidency.

But there are major uncertainties regarding Karol Nawrocki, the candidate supported by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS). Unlike the other candidates, Nawrocki has never been involved in foreign policy.

His background is in historical policy, so while his views on OUN-UPA are well known, his stance on modern Ukraine and global affairs remains unclear.

Nawrocki previously served as the director of the Institute of National Remembrance and, before that, as the director of the World War II Museum.

He made a controversial statement recently, claiming that Ukraine’s membership in the EU and NATO would be impossible without resolving the Volhynia issue. [The Volyn (Volhynia) tragedy was a series of events that led to the ethnic cleansing of the Polish and Ukrainian populations in 1943 during World War II. It was part of a long-standing rivalry between Ukrainians and Poles in what is now Ukraine's west. Poland considers the Volyn tragedy a genocide of Poles – ed.] It remains unclear though what exactly he means by "resolving" this historical dispute.

Supporting Karol Nawrocki as a presidential candidate is risky for PiS.

The party underestimated the potential scandals tied to Nawrocki’s past, and more damaging revelations are likely to emerge.

Trzaskowski remains the frontrunner at the moment, though not as decisively as he was at the beginning of the campaign.

If Trzaskowski wins, Poland’s political landscape is expected to stabilise. This could pave the way for resolving the country’s dual-power struggle and addressing judicial issues that are already affecting the stability of the Polish state.

If Nawrocki wins, Poland’s ongoing political crisis will deepen.

The country will become increasingly absorbed in its internal political conflicts, which would negatively impact its relations not only with Ukraine but with the wider world as well.