Who could succeed Trudeau and will Canada’s policy toward Ukraine change?
Radical changes are imminent in Canada.
Justin Trudeau, who has led the Canadian government for nine years, has officially announced his resignation as the leader of the Liberal Party and expressed his readiness to step down as Prime Minister once the party elects a new leader.
Canada will now face early elections (though not immediately, but in a few months), which are likely to bring the Conservatives back to power.
These changes come amid unprecedented challenges, particularly due to threats from the newly elected US President Donald Trump.
Read more about who might lead the Canadian government and whether this political crisis could weaken support for Ukraine in the article by Dmytro Sherengovskyi, Program Director of the Dnistryanskyi Center – Canada's reset: why Trudeau’s resignation is only the beginning of major changes in the country.
By announcing his resignation, Justin Trudeau acted maturely, setting aside personal ambitions to prevent the Liberal Party from looking completely dismantled.
Some might criticise him, arguing that abandoning ship during a storm is the worst decision a captain can make, and they’d be partially right. However, considering his tenure as Prime Minister, personal sacrifices (his work was reportedly a key factor in his divorce), and the current circumstances, it’s fair to say that Trudeau prioritised party interests over personal ones.
Evidence of this team-oriented approach is the agreement with Governor General Mary Simon to prorogue Parliament until 24 March 2025.
This means all parliamentary processes will be frozen for the next two and a half months, giving the Liberal Party time to hold internal elections and remain in power.
Formally, the party leader can be any individual, regardless of parliamentary mandate, but they will still need to go through internal elections.
Given the limited time, low Liberal ratings, and the likely loss in national elections to the Conservatives, the most probable scenario is electing a leader from among the party’s most loyal members.
Since rumours of Trudeau’s potential resignation began circulating, analysts have identified a list of potential successors.
The list includes: Dominic LeBlanc, the new Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Public Safety; Chrystia Freeland, former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, the most recognisable figure in the Liberal Party; Mélanie Joly, Canada’s Foreign Minister since 2021; Christy Clark, former Premier of British Columbia; Mark Carney, former Governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.
Choosing a new leader for the Liberal Party will also define the party’s strategy for the upcoming elections.
It is possible that Freeland or Carney may depart from the current party line or even criticise it. However, doing so would imply acknowledging Trudeau’s government’s mistakes, making it difficult to explain to voters why they didn’t adopt a new course earlier.
Still, if the party offers an attractive alternative strategy, it could benefit them by making it harder for opponents to criticise the revamped platform and preventing a catastrophic drop in support.
Regardless of how events unfold in the coming months and the subsequent early elections, likely to take place this spring, Ukraine is unlikely to suffer major losses due to these changes.
However, the elections and the need for the new government to focus on urgent domestic issues, including a trade dispute with the US, will shift Canada’s attention inward at least until summer.
If Donald Trump carries out his threats against Canada, this could further divert the new government’s attention from Ukraine, even if it remains friendly toward Kyiv.