How Trump set the negotiation wheel in motion and what he demands from Ukraine
Weeks of behind-the-scenes efforts by Donald Trump's administration on the Russia track have yielded the first public results. And for European capitals, these results have felt like a cold shower, if not an outright bombshell.
Trump has broken an unwritten taboo of US foreign policy over the past three years. On 12 February, he held a conversation with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, shattering the once-unchallenged principle of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine."
Trump has introduced a new reality in which Ukraine is rapidly losing its agency.
He presented Zelenskyy with a fait accompli: the negotiation process had already begun. And Ukraine did not enter it "from a position of strength."
Read more to understand the contours of the "peace plan" that Washington seems to envision in the article by Oleh Pavliuk, a European Pravda journalist – Peace with Ukraine without Ukraine: what Trump and Putin agreed on and what it means in practice.
The first official US-Russia contact since December 2021 was preceded by a prisoner exchange: American schoolteacher Marc Fogel was swapped for businessman and cybercriminal Alexander Vinnik.
This exchange seemingly convinced Trump of the effectiveness of his Middle East envoy, Steven Witkoff, whom he had quietly tasked with establishing contacts with the Russians a few weeks earlier.
Trump’s 12 February call with Putin was not entirely unexpected, after all, Trump had repeatedly stated his desire to speak with Putin as soon as possible. He had also expressed intentions not just to talk, but to meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia.
But what was the US aiming to achieve with this move?
Based on public statements, Trump's primary goal was to demonstrate that, unlike Biden, he is willing to talk to Putin about "ending the war" in Ukraine, and, crucially, that Putin is also willing to talk to him.
The key issue, however, was that the negotiations were to be conducted on US terms, with Russia expected to make concessions.
Notably, Trump's statement about his conversation with Putin made no mention of any "red lines" for ending the war–another clear departure from Democratic policy.
Moreover, his post hinted that the US is open to restoring normal relations with Russia.
When it comes to Ukraine, however, the new Pentagon chief, Pete Hegseth, made America's stance clear during his first visit to Brussels for a Ramstein meeting: Ukraine’s goals of returning to its pre-2014 borders and joining NATO are unrealistic. However, he did not rule out future NATO membership entirely.
Instead, Hegseth stated that a "negotiated settlement" in Ukraine must be backed by capable European and non-European forces, but strictly not American troops. These forces would be deployed as part of a mission outside NATO’s framework, exempt from Article 5 protections, and subject to strong international oversight along the front line.
Donald Trump has deliberately set the "peace process" in motion regarding Ukraine, even though his administration’s final vision for this process remains unclear, something confirmed by multiple official statements and sources within Washington familiar with the discussions.
However, in the past 24 hours, the balance has shifted significantly against Ukrainian interests.
So Ukraine and its European allies, who are increasingly willing to take on a greater role in supporting Kyiv, must act swiftly to change the narrative of these negotiations. And they must do so urgently, while there is still time to make a meaningful difference.