Estonian intelligence: Russia pays for every square kilometre captured in Ukraine with 100 soldiers

The Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre has assessed that in January 2025, capturing one square kilometre of Ukrainian territory cost Russia the lives of 100 soldiers from its armed forces.

As reported by ERR, Estonian intelligence indicates that recent geopolitical events have not affected the course of hostilities in Ukraine.

"The fighting continues on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides," Janek Kesselmann, Deputy Chief of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, said.

The most intense battles occurred in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, where Ukrainian forces launched an offensive from the city of Sudzha in a southeastern direction.

Meanwhile, the situation on the Pokrovsk front, which remains the primary axis for Russia’s offensive operations, has not changed significantly.

If Russian forces manage to capture Pokrovsk, their next targets will likely be the the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, but at the current pace, this will not happen quickly, Estonian intelligence notes.

Kesselmann estimates that at this tempo occupation of the entire territory of Ukraine could be possible by 2075.

Estonian intelligence has assessed that compared to late 2024, Russian forces captured approximately 100 square kilometres less territory in January 2025, while suffering an average of 100 casualties per square kilometre (killed and wounded).

Russia’s relatively high casualty rate – between 1,000 and 1,500 killed or wounded daily – has forced its military to send wounded soldiers back into battle, the report notes.

"The effectiveness of such ‘assault units’ is highly questionable. However, they serve to exhaust Ukrainian forces (mainly by depleting their ammunition supplies) and allow Russia to avoid dealing with war-disabled soldiers and paying long-term benefits," Estonian intelligence said.

Kesselmann added that Ukraine is holding its ground well on all fronts.

"Of course, the situation is extremely difficult and the losses are significant, but Russia’s losses are clearly greater than Ukraine’s," he said.

Earlier, Estonian intelligence reported that Russia does not currently pose a direct military threat to Estonia. 

It was also noted that China is helping Russia circumvent sanctions and supplying drone components.