Why Polish presidential campaign will affect Ukraine and Ukrainians
Presidential elections in Poland are set to take place on 18 May 2025.
This time, against the backdrop of the election campaign, the Ukrainian issue is particularly prominent.
Read more to understand the rhetoric of key candidates regarding Ukraine and Ukrainians and how it may impact relations between the two countries in the article by Michał Kacewicz, a Biełsat journalist - Elections with an eye on the neighbours: what Polish presidential candidates say about Ukraine.
The Ukrainian issue in Polish politics can be divided into three components: The first one is attitude toward Ukrainian migrants and refugees in Poland. The euphoria and empathy of Poles observed in the first months of Russia's full-scale invasion have faded. This was expected, as large migrant communities have quickly emerged in monoethnic Poland.
The second one is attitude toward Ukraine itself and the ongoing war.
And the third one is historical policy, which significantly influences Poland’s internal politics.
Emotions surrounding these topics remain high and could heavily impact Polish voters' political choices.
Public opinion polls showing declining support for Ukrainians fuel new political statements, ideas, and promises from presidential candidates, particularly those from the right-wing.
So no presidential candidate can avoid addressing the Ukrainian issue. Each contender faces the challenge of winning votes beyond their core political base.
Campaign teams are carefully analyzing Polish attitudes toward Ukrainians, dividing respondents by age, region, and profession to tailor their messaging accordingly.
The stance of Poles who support the ruling parties, Civic Coalition and Third Way, has remained mostly unchanged.
However, both Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, running with Civic Coalition's backing and Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s support, and Sejm Marshal Szymon Hołownia (Third Way) have adjusted their positions and become more vocal on Ukrainian issues.
This is unsurprising–they need to appeal to voters with different views.
Rafał Trzaskowski, the current frontrunner, has referenced efforts by the government to address historical grievances (such as the initiation of exhumations of Polish victims of the UPA in Ukraine). He has also suggested not being overly generous with social benefits for immigrants and even cutting some aid to Ukrainians.
In doing so, he touches on topics usually championed by right-wing politicians.
At the same time, he insists that Ukraine’s membership in the EU and NATO aligns with Poland’s national interest.
In contrast, Karol Nawrocki, the right-wing candidate from Law and Justice (PiS), traditionally sceptical of Ukraine, holds the opposite view.
Nawrocki's statement that he does not see Ukraine joining NATO and the EU until the Volyn issue is resolved sparked an uproar, including accusations of playing into Russia’s hands.
However, he claims to have been repeatedly targeted by Russian propaganda and is even on Russia’s wanted list. In this way, he tries to counter allegations of being a "Kremlin agent" while simultaneously expressing dissatisfaction with Ukraine and Ukrainians to win the favour of right-wing voters, including Confederation supporters.