Media: Ukraine could maintain current pace of war until summer without US aid
Ukraine has enough weapons to continue fighting at the current pace until the summer without US military aid.
As reported by The Wall Street Journal, by the summer, Kyiv may face a shortage of ammunition and an inability to use some of the most advanced weapons.
Former senior Pentagon official Celeste Wallander said the large arms shipments that the Joe Biden administration has sent or contracted in its final months should be enough to allow the Ukrainians to continue fighting at their current pace until at least mid-year. Some Ukrainian analysts say their country can hold out even longer.
Europe is preparing to try to fill the gap. European officials said the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Norway provided about US$25 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2024 – more than the United States did that year. The continent has significantly increased its production of artillery shells, and discussions are underway to increase EU aid to US$30 billion this year.
Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the United States has provided nearly US$70 billion in military aid, President Zelenskyy said. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy states that this is more than all of Ukraine's other Western allies combined.
But Ukraine has also built its formidable munitions industry, which now produces US$30 billion worth of weapons a year, according to the country's strategic industry minister, a six-fold increase from the previous year.
Ukraine currently builds or finances about 55% of its military equipment. According to one Western official, the US supplies about 20% and Europe 25%.
However, some US supplies – including advanced air defence systems, surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, navigation systems, and long-range rocket artillery – will be virtually impossible to replace in the short term. Europe simply does not produce enough – or, in some cases, any at all.
Once these American supplies run out, Ukraine's ability to strike long-range and defend its rear positions will suffer, officials and analysts say.
"Having a partner who supplies you with the highest quality military technologies, it’s by definition irreplaceable in some areas," Czech government's envoy for Ukraine's reconstruction Tomas Kopecny said.
Former President Joe Biden, before leaving office, tried to ensure that Ukraine could continue to fight as long as possible. His administration sent weapons from existing US stockpiles and signed contracts with the US defence industry to purchase ammunition, air defence interceptors, vehicles and other materials. These supplies will last until 2026.
"This was in support of what we understood the strategy of the incoming administration to be: to negotiate from a position of strength and lay out for Putin that the Ukrainians can continue to fight," Wallander said.
Now Donald Trump has overturned this assumption, attacking Zelenskyy in a series of social media posts. He accused the Ukrainian president of starting the war and called him a dictator. Both statements echoed the Kremlin's narrative about the Ukrainian leader and the war, which began when Russia invaded the country in 2022.
After Trump's statements, House Speaker Mike Johnson also said that Congress had "no appetite" for another bill to help Ukraine.