What is the Trump Doctrine and how can Ukraine protect its interests within it?

Many US presidents have had their own foreign policy doctrines.

For example, Harry Truman’s doctrine laid the foundation for US foreign policy during the Cold War, ultimately leading to the defeat of the USSR and the liberation of Eastern Europe.

The world may now be entering a new era, one that could eventually be called the Trump era, since the global order stands at a turning point where the actions and policies of a single president could shape the future of world affairs for decades.

Read more about what exactly might Donald Trump’s foreign policy doctrine entail, and what threats does it pose to Ukraine in the column by Oleksandr Merezhko, the head of Ukraine's Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee – Understanding the Trump Doctrine to protect Ukraine’s interests in a new reality.

The author notes that within US foreign policy circles, there is a growing emphasis on shifting away from the grand strategy of "liberal hegemony" toward a strategy of "offshore balancing."

This strategy focuses on maintaining a balance of power in three strategically important regions for the US (Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific) without a significant American military presence in these areas.

"In short, offshore balancing means that the US will use its power only when there is a direct threat to its vital interests," Merezhko writes.

Some American scholars who study Trump’s foreign policy describe his worldview as "conservative American nationalism," which emphasises US strength, patriotism, and sovereignty.

Trump's slogan America First! is interpreted by some as a belief that the US and its aid have often been exploited by other countries, including its allies.

Overall, Merezhko argues, Trump’s foreign policy is increasingly aligning with offshore balancing, as it better reflects his strategic thinking and leadership style.

How could the US under Trump’s doctrine affect Ukraine’s security and position?

"First, some members of Trump’s team believe that Ukraine has no strategic value for the US, does not fall within America’s 'security perimeter,' and is instead a matter of European security," Merezhko notes.

However, he warns that an even more dangerous interpretation of offshore balancing is being promoted in the US by pro-Kremlin voices.

"According to this view, countering China is more important to the US than Ukraine’s fate. Therefore, in this geopolitical confrontation, Washington might seek to bring Russia to its side by offering it concessions, including accepting Ukraine’s fall into Moscow’s sphere of influence," Merezhko argues.

How can Ukraine convince Trump’s administration of its strategic importance?

The head of Ukraine’s parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee suggests several key arguments.

First, the free world must recognise that dictators Putin and Xi should be seen as a unified threat.

Another argument is that Russia’s defeat would simultaneously weaken China.

Moreover, a Russian failure in Ukraine would serve as a major deterrent to potential aggressors, including in the Indo-Pacific region.

Ukraine’s challenge in the evolving Trump doctrine will be to demonstrate that its security is directly linked to US strategic interests, not just in Europe, but globally.