What changes the imprisonment of pro-Russian Dodik could bring to the Balkans

A court in Bosnia and Herzegovina has sentenced Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska (a part of Bosnia and Herzegovina), to one year in prison, along with a six-year ban on holding political office.

This ruling has not yet come into effect, as it can still be appealed.

It is already clear, however, that the verdict will accelerate Dodik’s efforts to separate Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Read more to understand where this escalation might lead in the article by Volodymyr Tsybulnyk, Western Balkans expert, and Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor – Prison for "Putin’s friend": what the verdict means for the Balkans’ chief separatist.

On 26 February, the trial of Milorad Dodik, a persistent and aggressive separatist, Serbian nationalist, and a close ally of Vladimir Putin, finally ended with a guilty verdict.

He was accused of making threats and engaging in actions aimed at destabilising Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), which could lead to Republika Srpska's secession. And there is no guarantee that this process would remain peaceful.

Dodik has done everything to ensure that separatism and the threat of BiH’s breakup remain a permanent feature of the country’s political landscape.

The authorities in Republika Srpska have been "rebelling" against the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt.

Under the Dayton Peace Agreement, the highest authority in the country belongs to the High Representative, who has the power to annul legislative decisions and remove officials of any rank, including politicians.

The National Assembly of Republika Srpska has passed laws stopping the publication of the High Representative’s decisions in the Official Gazette, declared Christian Schmidt’s position illegitimate, and even adopted a "law" preventing the application of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s court rulings in Republika Srpska.

Dodik has crossed multiple red lines and committed a criminal offense.

Support for Dodik came from the presidents of Serbia and Croatia, as well as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Just before the verdict was announced, former Trump advisor and close associate Rudy Giuliani visited Republika Srpska.

"As of today, this Bosnia and Herzegovina no longer exists," Dodik declared in his characteristic style after hearing the verdict.

By the morning of 26 February 26, before the ruling was even announced, the National Assembly and the Government of Republika Srpska began working in "non-stop" mode.

According to Dodik, the Assembly is expected to pass four key "laws" in the near future. These would be concrete steps toward dismantling Bosnia and Herzegovina as a unified state.

The morning of 27 February though revealed that Dodik was not in a hurry to escalate the situation. For unknown reasons, the adoption of these "separatist" laws was postponed until later in the day.

Moscow ignored the verdict, but the US Department of State publicly expressed its support for the ruling, stating that Washington would oppose any attempts by "local leaders to undermine security and stability."

This removed any uncertainty over whether the ruling contradicts the policies of the new US administration.

The attempts by pro-Russian separatists to destabilise the country have finally received an appropriate response.

And if the appeal does not overturn the guilty verdict, Dodik will not become a martyr-hero but rather a cautionary example for other politicians flirting with separatist rhetoric.