Estonian General Staff sees no signs of Russia's readiness for peace

There have been no signs over the past week that Russia is preparing for a possible ceasefire, on the contrary, the Russians are increasing the number of attacks to achieve better negotiation conditions.

"During the first week of the fourth year of the war, Russia has not made any tactical progress in any sector. Open geolocation data shows that the advance of the Russian armed forces towards Pokrovsk has completely stopped, and Ukraine has managed to increase the perimeter of Pokrovsk's defence with local counterattacks," Lieutenant Colonel Mattias Puusepp, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Estonian Defence Forces, said, as quoted by ERR, Estonian radio and television organisation.

At the same time, Russian armed groups are not reducing their offensive activity: at the beginning of the month, it dropped to 100 attacks per day and remained at 103 attacks on average over the past week.

Puusepe says there are also no signs that Russia is preparing for a possible ceasefire.

"There is more speculation in the public information about the possibility that Russia will increase the number of attacks, primarily in [Russiaʼs] Kursk [Oblast], to achieve better conditions for negotiations. However, we have information that Russia does not have the balance of power that would allow it to quickly succeed in recapturing Kursk Oblast," Puusepp added.

The main target remains Pokrovsk and its surroundings, where a quarter to a third of the ground troops' attacks still take place.

"However, there is less determination in the actions of the Russian Armed Forces, and they are looking for weaknesses in Ukraine's defence on other fronts," he concluded.

The Estonian Defence Intelligence Centre estimated that in January 2025, the seizure of one square kilometre of Ukrainian territory cost Russia the lives of 100 of its soldiers.