How the scandal that could change Germany’s election results to Ukraine’s disadvantage emerged

It seemed that the election campaign in Germany was proceeding in a relatively calm manner, making it easy to predict the likely outcome of the vote on 23 February.

The events last Wednesday, 29 January, escalated rapidly in the following days and turned into a true political shock, capable of reshaping the political landscape.

Friedrich Merz, leader of the conservative CDU/CSU alliance and the frontrunner for the German chancellorship, well known to Ukrainians for his criticism of Olaf Scholz’s government over insufficient support for Ukraine, made an extremely risky move in an attempt to take votes from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Read more about the turning point in Germany’s election campaign and its consequences in the article by Khrystyna Bondarieva, a European Pravda journalist – An alternative for Germany’s Chancellor: how Merz’s 'friendship' with the far right changes everything.

Trying to showcase a tough stance on illegal migration, Merz attempted to push through a series of measures in parliament last week.

His move was a response to a series of attacks recently carried out in Germany by individuals of migrant origin.

Given that his proposals sharply diverged from the policies of the Social Democrats and the Greens, the only significant ally, and simultaneously the main rival, of the CDU/CSU leader was the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Paradoxically, Merz decided to undermine AfD’s main advantage, the claim that it is the only party capable of radically changing migration policy, by using AfD itself.

But this strategy risked triggering an unprecedented scandal because, since World War II, German parliamentary tradition has upheld an ironclad rule: no cooperation with the far right.

Ultimately, on 29 January, the Bundestag approved the conservative CDU/CSU proposal to tighten migration control.

Although the decision was made in the form of an appeal rather than a legally binding law, the most critical aspect was that its passage would have been impossible without AfD’s votes.

Following the vote, Merz expressed regret that such an important decision had to be passed with the help of the far right.

By Wednesday evening, protesters had gathered outside the CDU headquarters in Berlin, and in the following days, tens of thousands took to the streets across Germany to oppose the conservatives’ cooperation with right-wing radicals.

According to some reports, the demonstration in Berlin on 2 February mobilised a quarter of a million people.

The Greens and the SPD were unanimous in calling it a "dark day" for democracy.

But the harshest criticism came from within Merz’s own party, voiced by former CDU leader and ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The ones who openly celebrated the situation, however, were AfD and its leader, Alice Weidel.

Amid these heated debates, on Friday, 31 January, the Bundestag was set to vote on another migration initiative proposed by Merz. This time, it was an actual bill rather than a non-binding resolution, making the vote even more significant.

The bill failed though. The primary reason for this failure was the refusal of some CDU lawmakers to support Merz’s initiative.

Merz now finds himself in a difficult position. His opponents have gained the opportunity to portray him as an ineffective chancellor candidate who cannot even secure the unity of his own party.

The biggest winner in this political turmoil appears to be the far-right Alternative for Germany, which can continue convincing voters that no one but them is truly committed and capable of implementing necessary changes.

Moreover, voters have witnessed a shifting political landscape, with AfD growing stronger, an outcome that could have long-term consequences not only for Germany but also for its stance on Ukraine.