Why lifting energy sanctions against Russia is possible and what Ukraine should do
A potential deal between Donald Trump’s administration and Russia could have a significant impact on Europe’s energy balance and global energy markets as a whole.
The worst-case scenario would be the return of Russia’s energy expansion to global markets through seaborne liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies.
Any easing of sanctions against Russia could have serious consequences. Read more in the column by Oleh Savitsky and Maksym Gardus of Razom We Stand – Kremlin’s energy hope: will Donald Trump create new opportunities for Russia?
The authors remind readers that Donald Trump’s previous presidency demonstrated his inclination toward negotiations with the Kremlin and a preference for "profitable deals" over systematic pressure.
"Today’s conditions are different, and the policy direction of the new US administration may be tougher, but the risk of 'profitable deals' to divide energy markets remains," write Gardus and Savitsky.
In their view, the US strategy regarding the war in Ukraine could include easing restrictions on Russian energy exports in exchange for a formal cessation of hostilities or a "frozen conflict."
One of the key elements of such a deal, the authors suggest, could be the restoration of Russia’s access to the international LNG market.
They point out that Trump’s administration previously relaxed energy sanctions, particularly against Iran and Venezuela.
"In the worst-case scenario, a similar approach toward Russia could unlock exports from Arctic LNG-2, allow the use of Western technologies, and lift restrictions on cooperation with European and Asian buyers," warn Gardus and Savitsky.
For Ukraine, they explain, this would pose significant strategic risks and threats: strengthening Russia’s position in global energy markets, increasing its export revenues, reducing incentives for the EU to transition to alternative energy sources, and weakening the international coalition against the aggressor.
The column’s authors believe that Ukraine and its international partners must act proactively to prevent Russia’s return to the global LNG market through potential sanctions relief.
"First and foremost, Ukrainian diplomacy must intensify communication with key players in the EU and the US, emphasising the dangers of any concessions to the Kremlin. Strengthening the coalition of countries that support sanctions policy should be a priority," the experts write.
According to them, an important step is Ukraine’s active participation in shaping Europe’s energy policy.
Ukraine should advocate for long-term commitments to completely phase out Russian gas and support initiatives for renewable energy development, increased energy efficiency, and industrial decarbonisation.
At the same time, Ukraine must expand its own electricity export capabilities to the EU by strengthening energy connections with neighboring countries.
"At the global level, efforts should continue with G7 countries to implement secondary sanctions against companies that help Russia circumvent restrictions," the authors continue.
They conclude that only strict control and strategic partnerships will stop the Kremlin’s energy expansion and protect Ukraine’s long-term interests.