Why Norway’s coalition collapsed and how it will affect aid to Ukraine
Norway’s ruling coalition between the Centre Party and the Labour Party collapsed last week.
Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has filled the vacant ministerial positions as of 4 February.
As a result, the Labour Party will have to govern alone until the parliamentary elections on 8 September.
Read more about why Norway’s coalition broke apart and how Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency played its role in the article by Iryna Kutielieva, a European Pravda journalist – Between the EU anvil and Trump’s hammer: what Norway’s coalition collapse means for Ukraine.
Norway, one of Europe’s wealthiest countries thanks to its vast oil and gas reserves, is not a member of the European Union but belongs to the European Economic Area (EEA). This grants Norway access to the EU’s single market but also requires compliance with most EU regulations.
In Norway, some politicians, particularly from the Centre Party, argue that the costs of following Brussels’ rules outweigh the benefits of single-market access.
These tensions escalated when Labour Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre sought to pass the EU’s Fourth Energy Package, which includes measures on energy efficiency and renewable energy sources.
The Centre Party strongly opposed the package, believing it would weaken national control over electricity policy and drive up electricity prices, which are currently lower in Norway than in neighbouring countries.
Støre rejected these concerns, insisting that passing the long-overdue legislation was crucial for Norway’s relationship with the EU.
On 30 January, the Centre Party officially announced its exit from the coalition.
Despite the government reshuffle, Ukraine has little to worry about. Norwegian support for Kyiv will not decrease or stop.
Both the Labour and Centre parties, which played a key role in major decisions for Ukraine, have been losing ground in opinion polls. However, the Centre Party has started to regain some support after leaving the coalition, reaching its highest approval rating since December 2021.
To stabilise Labour’s position, the party brought in a trusted figure – Jens Stoltenberg, former NATO Secretary General and ex-Prime Minister of Norway. He has been appointed Minister of Finance, the second most important position in the Norwegian government.
Norwegian media describe Stoltenberg as the only person who can revive Labour’s popularity due to his personal credibility. Analysts warn against overestimating the "Stoltenberg effect," as Labour’s position remains precarious.
Right-wing parties are leading the polls – the Conservative Party (which has recently seen a slight drop in support) and the Progress Party (which now tops the rankings).
Both parties advocate continued military and financial support for Ukraine. Traditionally, right-wing parties take a more hawkish stance, so there is cautious optimism that military aid could even increase.
As a minority government, Labour will have to seek support from various political forces, including right-wing parties.
Given this, political analysts suggest that the coalition’s collapse may actually simplify Norway’s adoption of the EU’s energy directives.
One key reason Labour wants to maintain strong ties with the EU is the looming threat of a trade war between Europe and the United States, which could leave Norway isolated.
Additionally, Norwegians are deeply concerned about Trump’s past ambitions regarding Greenland, fearing that similar geopolitical moves could have implications for the Arctic island of Svalbard.