Will Fico and Orbán's blackmail succeed in restoring Russian gas transit?

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán are attempting to pressure Kyiv into reopening the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory.

Fico is threatening to block EU aid to Ukraine, while Orbán has secured an initial victory, forcing the European Commission to issue a special statement in exchange for his support in extending sanctions against Russia.

Against this backdrop, some statements from Kyiv might appear as willingness to compromise. For instance, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested that gas transit could resume, but only for Azerbaijani gas.

Does this mean the de facto restoration of Russian gas transit? Would stopping transit be catastrophic for the European economy? Could former US President Donald Trump crash global oil prices? And how might Russia respond?

Read more in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor who spoke with Mykhailo Honchar, president of the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI – Fico and Orbán attack Ukraine: will Kyiv compromise on Russian gas transit?

The push to resume Russian gas transit through Ukraine is primarily the demand of the Slovak and Hungarian prime ministers, not the European Union as a whole.

The European Commission has made its stance clear: the EU does not need such volumes of Russian gas. Additionally, energy diversification and decarbonisation remain top priorities for the new European Commission.

That said, the Commission cannot outright deny an EU member state's legitimate request. It has therefore pledged to engage in negotiations – talks that could last months, years, or even decades.

Robert Fico has repeatedly warned that Ukraine stopping Russian gas transit would be disastrous for Europe.

But in reality, there has been no catastrophe – nor any significant issues, aside from a minor increase in gas prices on the European market.

This price hike is a normal seasonal fluctuation, as gas prices always rise in winter.

Ukraine has expressed openness to resuming transit, but only for Azerbaijani gas.

Last year, a scheme was even discussed that would have involved transporting Russian gas to Europe via Azerbaijan. However, following tensions between Baku and Moscow, particularly after Azerbaijan downed a Russian military aircraft, this workaround is no longer viable.

Now, the discussion is about the genuine transit of Azerbaijani gas. Increasing production, however, will take at least five years.

In the meantime, Azerbaijan may only be able to boost exports by a few billion cubic meters, enough to fully resolve gas supply issues for countries like Moldova, but not for the entire EU.

Hungary and Slovakia already have excellent technical options to receive non-Russian oil via Croatia.

There is little doubt that the European Commission has privately explained this to both Orbán and Fico multiple times.

Their real motive seems to be maintaining corrupt schemes, whereby Russian oil is supplied to them at a special price, which already includes their political loyalty.

This is essentially Russia’s payment for the services that the Fico and Orbán governments provide to the Kremlin.

If Ukraine were to hypothetically block the TurkStream pipeline, the last major route for Russian gas to Europe (serving Türkiye, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Hungary), pro-Russian sentiment in these countries would likely start to fade.

As for Trump's promise to lower oil prices, a shift in the global energy market could indeed happen.

The current dynamic – "Russia and Saudi Arabia vs the US" – could revert to a previous model: "the US and Saudi Arabia vs. Russia."

Whether this scenario is possible should become clearer by the end of the first quarter of this year.