How Slovakia convinces EU to return to Russian gas and whether it has a chance of success

Ukraine has stopped transporting Russian gas through its territory since the beginning of the year.

Contrary to some experts’ predictions, nothing catastrophic has happened, Ukrainian pipelines have not dried up, and gas prices in Europe have not skyrocketed.

However, attempts to restore transit through Ukraine continue.

Read more to understand why Slovakia wants to receive gas specifically via Ukraine in the article by Olena Pavlenko, DiXi Group President – Fico increases pressure: will Ukraine be forced to unblock Russian gas transit?

Ukraine's decision fully aligns with the EU’s strategy of completely phasing out Russian gas by 2027. This goal is to be achieved by finding alternative suppliers and reducing gas consumption within the EU.

Initially, the strategy progressed as planned, but in 2024, the trend of decreasing Russian gas imports slowed significantly.

A shift has occurred in the import of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). In 2024, imports increased, with France, Spain, and Belgium receiving 85% of Russian LNG.

Another challenge to the EU’s strategy of eliminating Russian gas by 2027 is the rising gas imports through the TurkStream pipeline.

Logically, the increased TurkStream imports suggest a need to supply gas to Slovakia as a replacement for transit through Ukraine.

However, some journalists have pointed out that Slovakia is not physically receiving gas from TurkStream. Instead, Slovakia may be relying on its own storage reserves, which are more than 40% full and sufficient to complete the winter season.

There appears to be no immediate gas crisis in Slovakia. The country has multiple alternatives, including increased gas imports via TurkStream starting in April, as well as supply agreements with Poland’s Orlen and the possibility of importing gas through Austria, Hungary, and Czechia.

Despite these options, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico continues to insist on receiving gas through Ukraine.

Before last week’s European Council meeting, Fico once again resorted to blackmail, threatening to veto EU financial and military aid to Ukraine. As a result, the final summit document included a statement about "intensifying efforts towards finding workable solutions to the gas transit issue, taking into account Slovakia’s concerns."

Slovakia’s main argument is the rising gas prices in the EU and domestically.

However, the real reason may be Slovakia’s lost revenue from gas transit and reselling surplus gas to other EU countries. Some reports suggest Slovakia earned up to €500 million annually from gas transit. This opportunity disappears with imports via TurkStream and other routes.

The increase in EU gas purchases and competition with Asian markets will keep prices high. Unfortunately, this provides Slovakia with additional leverage to advocate for the resumption of Russian pipeline gas transit as a "quick fix" for the EU.

Thus, pressure from the Slovak prime minister is likely to continue. Not only must EU partners be prepared for this, but Ukraine must also develop a clear strategy to counter such blackmail.