How "Putin’s friend" brought the Balkans to the brink of war and what the West can do

The frozen conflict that has defined Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) for its entire modern history now seems to be fully "unfrozen." The possibility of renewed hostilities in BiH has become realistic.

The catalyst for this crisis was the verdict against Republika Srpska’s President Milorad Dodik, the leader of the Bosnian Serbs was sentenced to one year in prison and banned from political activity for six years. While an appeal is still pending, judicial authorities have been ordered to bring Dodik and the top leadership of Republika Srpska in for questioning over alleged attempts to undermine BiH’s constitutional order.

Suppressing this separatist uprising could mark the beginning of BiH’s transformation into a fully functional state, where national minorities can no longer obstruct its foreign policy direction.

Read more about the Balkan crisis fueled by Russia and its potential consequences in the article by Western Balkans expert Volodymyr Tsybulnyk and Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor – Between arresting separatists and civil war: what’s happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Russia has done everything possible to stir tensions in Republika Srpska and create the illusion that secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina and unification with Serbia is a viable option.

At the core of the current crisis is Russia’s veto.

In 2021, Russia refused to approve the reappointment of the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

When Christian Schmidt was appointed to the position without Moscow’s consent, Russia declared his authority illegitimate and claimed that his orders were non-binding.

In 2023, Republika Srpska’s National Assembly (NSRS) passed a resolution refusing to recognise Schmidt as the High Representative and later banned the publication of his decrees in official Republika Srpska media.

These actions led to criminal proceedings against Milorad Dodik, ultimately resulting in his conviction, albeit with the lightest possible sentence.

While awaiting his verdict, Dodik openly threatened to secede Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina. After the ruling, he began acting on these threats.

The National Assembly passed laws prohibiting BiH’s judicial authorities from operating within Republika Srpska.

On 6 March, Dodik signed these laws into effect.

This brought the breakup of Bosnia and Herzegovina dangerously close to reality, escalating tensions rapidly.

In response, BiH’s Constitutional Court suspended the newly adopted laws.

On 10 March, the BiH Prosecutor’s Office launched a new case against Dodik and other Republika Srpska officials for attempting to undermine the constitutional order. They were summoned for questioning.

As expected, none of them appeared, meaning that prosecutors may now order the detention of not only Dodik but also Republika Srpska’s Prime Minister Radovan Višković and Parliament Speaker Nenad Stevandić.

This raises the risk of a confrontation with local security forces. For now, authorities are hesitant to act, but it is possible that the European peacekeeping mission (EUFOR) will intervene.

In the meantime, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte arrived in Sarajevo, stating: "We will not allow these efforts to threaten the hard-won peace."

The biggest development of the past few days is that Milorad Dodik has unexpectedly found himself without international support.

However, he continues to escalate tensions.

Last night, Republika Srpska’s Assembly passed a resolution to begin discussions on drafting and adopting a new Constitution for Republika Srpska.

What happens next will largely depend on how decisively High Representative Christian Schmidt responds.