How Trump's return to the White House could reshape Polish politics
Good relations with the United States have long been a cornerstone of Poland's security policy, regardless of which government is in power. However, will these fundamental principles of Polish foreign policy remain relevant if Donald Trump returns to office in the US?
The situation faced by President Andrzej Duda, who was allocated only 10 minutes of Trump’s time, highlights that no one can take good relations with the US for granted anymore.
Read more about how the change in power in the United States could impact Polish politics in the article by Edwin Bendyk, Chairman Of The Board at Stefan Batory Foundation (Poland) – The Trump factor: how the new US President affects politics in Poland and attitudes toward Ukraine.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has somewhat altered how Poles, who generally hold a positive view of the US, perceive the country.
More than half of respondents in a survey conducted by More in Common (early March) stated that the US has become a less reliable ally.
Nevertheless, 55% still consider the US an ally, while only 4% see it as an enemy.
From a party perspective, the most pro-American (or rather pro-Trump) views in Poland are held by supporters of the opposition party Law and Justice (PiS), to which President Andrzej Duda belongs.
Similarly, supporters of the far-right Confederation party share pro-American or pro-Trump sentiments.
Meanwhile, the governing party, Civic Coalition, holds the opposite view: 84% of its supporters believe that Trump’s return to power has diminished trust in the United States.
Thus, attitudes toward the US have become one of the dividing lines in Polish politics, shaping daily political debates and the unfolding presidential campaign.
PiS politicians criticise Donald Tusk’s government for what they perceive as a lack of pro-Americanism, citing, for instance, a recent dispute between Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski and both Elon Musk and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Perceptions of the United States also influence evaluations of other political events, including those related to Ukraine.
Following the controversial meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Donald Trump, and J.D. Vance at the White House on 28 February, Ukraine’s image among supporters of Poland’s pro-Trump opposition parties worsened. Meanwhile, Civic Coalition supporters became more favourable toward Ukraine.
Fortunately, these opinions have not affected strategic policy declarations.
88% of respondents believe that Ukraine's resistance to Russia is crucial for Poland’s security. However, 62% oppose sending Polish troops to Ukraine.
Regarding aid to Ukraine, the majority of Civic Coalition supporters advocate for continued assistance until Ukraine restores its 2022 borders (with 40% supporting aid until the restoration of its 2014 borders).
By contrast, most Confederation supporters want to halt aid to Ukraine immediately.
PiS voters have a more divided stance: 26% favour continued aid until Ukraine's full territorial restoration, while 23% believe Poland should stop assistance immediately.
Regardless of how public support for these parties evolves, there are clear signs that they are becoming the key forces in Polish politics. This dynamic could create significant challenges, including in relations with Ukraine.
The outcome of the Polish presidential elections will be decisive.
A victory for Rafał Trzaskowski would strengthen the democratic camp and solidify Civic Coalition’s position.
However, the question of who will face Trzaskowski in the second round remains crucial.
The American factor is expected to play a significant role in shaping Poland’s political trajectory.