Anti-Western candidate may reach the final round of Poland’s presidential election: the reason why

Movements rooted in protest against the status quo have taken deep root in Western politics: American Trumpism, Germany’s populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), France’s National Rally, and Austria’s Freedom Party. Similar trends are evident in Brazil, the Netherlands, and the UK.

Poland’s upcoming election may align with this dominant Western trend, where politicians who do not belong to the traditional right, left, or liberal center, the post-WWII political divisions, are increasingly entering the mainstream.

According to a March 2025 poll by the Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS), Sławomir Mentzen of the far-right Confederation ranks third in the presidential race. In some surveys, he already holds second place.

Read more about Poland’s rising political star and the formula for his success in an article by Michał Kacewicz, a Biełsat journalist – An alternative for Poland: how an anti-Ukrainian politician got a shot at the presidency.

Before entering politics, Mentzen was involved in various businesses, currency exchange, a weapons store, a brewery, and a pub.

However, his most profitable venture was a tax consultancy firm, which made him wealthy enough to invest in his other passion: politics.

Initially, Mentzen was a convinced libertarian, perhaps even a liberal anarchist, who believed in free markets and reducing the state’s role as a universal solution for Poland’s problems.

But as he rose to Confederation’s leadership, he skillfully united politicians with seemingly opposing views: ultra-liberalism with nationalism, anarchist populism with a belief in a strong Polish state, "Great Poland."

The leader of Confederation is well-prepared for public appearances. Mentzen is Poland’s first politician to fully embrace social media.
As a result, his core electoral base is young people.

Among voters aged 18-29, he enjoys over 50% support. Among those aged 30-39 nearly 50% also support him. Confederation has always been especially popular among young men.

However, this is a volatile electorate – active online but often absent on election day.

The presidential race is an opportunity for Confederation to expand and solidify its base, especially as Mentzen attracts voters from Law and Justice (PiS), which is losing ground.

To achieve this, he has had to distance himself from Confederation’s ultra-nationalist image.

Mentzen has tapped into the frustration of Poles tired of the two-decade political divide between Jarosław Kaczyński (PiS) and Donald Tusk (Civic Platform). Many have tried to break this duopoly –without success.

But Mentzen believes he can. He aims to attract voters who are fed up with both sides, those who oppose the establishment, elites, corporations, bureaucracy, and government intervention in their lives.

This includes voters who despise the EU for its regulations and bureaucracy, and who also lean toward nationalism.

This is why Mentzen aggressively fuels anti-migrant sentiment. Recently, a new theme has emerged in his campaign: Ukraine.