Has Trump managed to undermine public support for Ukraine in the West?

Despite the heavy cost of defending Ukraine’s sovereignty – and even as most Europeans have lost faith in the United States as a reliable ally – voters on both sides of the Atlantic remain surprisingly united in their support for the beleaguered country. As talks proceed between the US, France, the United Kingdom, Poland, and Germany, popular support for Ukraine will be a key finding to bear in mind.

Read more about public sentiment in the US and four major European countries regarding Ukraine and security in the column by Mathieu Lefevre and Tim Dixon, co-founders of the international non-profit organization More in Common, originally published on Project Syndicate – Unity under Trump's pressure: has the war in Ukraine divided public opinion in Europe and the US?

If US President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance wanted to rattle and divide Europeans, the strategy appears to have backfired. Germany’s incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is widely known as the "Atlanticist’s Atlanticist," and even he is urging Europeans to declare "independence" from the US.

Fractious and exhausted as Europeans are after three years of war on the continent,they have been galvanized by the Trump administration’s swerve toward Russia.

Only around one-quarter of French and Germans now see the US as an ally. And even in Britain, those who do are no longer a majority.

Europeans finally seem prepared to go it alone, with majorities in every country we polled saying they want to support Ukraine even if America pulls out.

Public attitudes in the US are even more striking. When it comes to Ukraine, Americans broadly agree with Europeans.

Majorities in Europe and the US, including among Republicans, also believe that Ukraine’s defense of its sovereignty matters for their own country, and most – even among Trump’s own base – worry that Russia could soon invade other countries in Europe.

Finally, when it comes to possible peace talks, a majority of Europeans and Americans believe that Ukraine should be at the negotiating table. One in five, or fewer, think the US should be engaging in peace talks with Russia that exclude Ukraine.

Where there are differences, they emerge mostly over Trump’s character and general approach to politics.

Here, his loyal MAGA base makes itself known. Whereas large majorities of Britons, Germans, French, Poles, and US Democrats think Trump’s handling of the war has been poor, 71% of Republicans think the opposite. Only among Republicans does a majority believe that a deal brokered by Trump in Ukraine would be good for the US.

The AfD is out of step with other Germans, and even with other populist parties in Europe, such as National Rally in France or Reform UK.

Only 33% of AfD supporters blame Russia for the war. The party, especially its East German voter base, shows a strong affinity for Putin and his regime.

Americans and Europeans are not polarized when it comes to the war in Ukraine or the transatlantic alliance.

If NATO does not survive the Trump presidency, its undoing will not be due to a rift between polities, but rather to decisions made by a small group of elites.

That may point to a more fundamental divide in Western democracies: between hard-core partisans and the rest of us.