Why Türkiye is protesting and why Erdoğan arrested the opposition leader
Mass protests, blocked social media, and halted public transport – this is what Istanbul looks like today.
Türkiye’s largest city has been engulfed by large-scale demonstrations sparked by the arrest of Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. He is accused of corruption and alleged ties to terrorists.
Thousands of protesters blame President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for trying to eliminate his main rival ahead of the next presidential elections.
However, under Turkish law, these elections are not set to take place until 2028. Moreover, Erdoğan is not legally allowed to run again.
Ihor Semivolos, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, explained to European Pravda why this high-profile arrest is happening now, what its consequences will be, and what it might mean for Ukraine. His insights are featured in the article Erdoğan escalates: how the arrest of the opposition leader shook Türkiye and what comes next.
A crucial factor behind the Turkish government’s actions is the primary elections within the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). The results were set to be announced on 23 March, and İmamoğlu was widely expected to be named the party’s presidential candidate.
One reason the primaries are happening so early, despite elections being years away, is that the opposition wants to prepare and build momentum for its candidate.
But there’s another reason: the opposition wants to be ready in case the government calls snap elections.
This is a real possibility because Erdoğan is seeking a way to run again. If the government calls snap elections, Erdoğan could claim that his current term was not completed, thus resetting his term limit and allowing him to run again.
Clearly, the authorities are taking the opposition’s primaries very seriously and are acting preemptively. They are using multiple tactics: charging İmamoğlu with corruption, accusing him of ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK, classified as a terrorist organisation), and even revoking his university diploma (since Türkiye’s constitution requires its president to have a higher education degree).
Additionally, İmamoğlu still faces an open case for allegedly insulting judges, currently in the appeal stage but always ready to be reactivated.
The arrest and possible sentencing of İmamoğlu aim to force the CHP to choose another presidential candidate.
The obvious alternative is Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, who is seen as a more convenient opponent for the ruling party’s candidate.
Despite the intensity and scale of the current protests, it’s worth remembering that the 2013 Gezi Park protests were even bigger and more emotional, yet they did not bring down Erdoğan.
If opposition parties take charge of the protests, establish an organisational structure, and secure resources, then the movement could become a real problem for Erdoğan’s government.
Meanwhile, public fatigue with Erdoğan is growing.
Right now, Erdoğan’s main counterstrategy is to secure a foreign policy victory, such as a shift in power in Syria. However, the electoral impact of a Syrian success may fade quickly.
Recently, Erdoğan has once again started arguing that Europe needs Türkiye and should unblock accession negotiations. But will Europe turn a blind eye to blatant power grabs like the attempt to sideline İmamoğlu? European governments have issued sharp and critical statements regarding his arrest.
Unlike Europe, the US response has been weak, stating that they do not interfere in internal affairs and trust the judicial process.
Opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu supports renewing dialogue with the EU. However, he also maintains a pragmatic stance toward Russia.
Ultimately, Türkiye’s policy toward Russia and the war will be shaped by its domestic electorate.