Why Kyiv will have to accept a "territorial compromise" – key points from Petr Pavel’s interview

Czech President Petr Pavel is a military officer by profession. A retired general, he was once the highest-serving representative of a Central European country in NATO, as chairman of the Alliance’s Military Committee.

His direct and often uncompromising statements about Ukraine have repeatedly sparked controversy and have certainly gone against the mainstream.

At the same time, Petr Pavel is a staunch supporter of military aid to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It was he who publicly pushed forward the Czech ammunition initiative, which has provided Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of large-calibre shells from all over the world. Now, despite opposition from many Czech government officials, he advocates for Czechia’s participation in a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine as part of the security guarantees.

European Pravda spoke briefly with Pavel in Kyiv before his two-day visit to Ukraine came to an end. Read the full interview in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, European Pravda's editor – Czech president on guarantees for Ukraine, concessions and the risk of war with NATO.

I think it is quite clear that without significant change in Russian leadership and the Russian approach to international politics, Russia will continue to be a threat to European democracies.

It was quite clear for me in 2023 that Ukraine should prepare not for victory but for concessions, that regaining full control over its borders would not be possible.

It was quite obvious that if Western countries were not able, for good reasons, to come up to assist Ukraine by combat forces – because that would really mean a war between NATO and Russia – it was only on material support. And the material support was not big enough to allow Ukraine a swift victory in this war. Ukraine was only relying on its own human resources, which are limited and, of course, much smaller than Russian human resources are.

And that's why my quite realistic assessment was that this conflict, without changing the parameters, will most probably end up with some compromise.

Now we are heading towards such a compromise.

But I believe that the compromise solution shouldn't be recognition of occupied territories as rightfully Russian.

If we want to maintain the rules-based international order, where principles like territorial integrity and sovereignty matter, then we simply cannot accept the fact that the aggressor will be rewarded by being granted legal ownership of occupied territories.

That's why we don't have any other option than not to recognise it and declare it at maximum as temporarily occupied.

But of course, the extent of "temporary" will be a question.

Even before Ukraine started its big counteroffensive two years ago, it was not well equipped to really succeed, because for a successful offensive, military theory says that you need a ratio of at least three, or preferably five, to one.

I see guarantees for Ukraine as basically twofold.

One will be an agreement with the United States. We can call it, briefly, a mineral agreement. But the very...

In practical terms, if there is an American presence – not military, but a business presence and business interests present in Ukraine – you can expect that these interests will be protected.

Another part of guarantees will come from European countries – countries that have declared their willingness to support Ukraine.

And now we talk mostly about the newly organised coalition of the willing – countries that are able and willing to deploy some stabilising force to Ukraine once a peace agreement is achieved.

Czechia is part of this coalition now, and I believe that once we come to an understanding that there is a common will to deploy forces, that Czechia will be part of it.

NATO membership is not an issue for a couple of months. It will need a longer time.

But my recommendation would be: let's not put it off the table.

In the meantime, we will all work with Ukraine on reconstruction, on more interoperability. We will exchange experience from this conflict. We will build new Ukrainian capabilities.

All these steps will bring Ukraine closer to European partners, who eventually may become allies.