How the Balkans divides into military alliances and what it could mean
Serbia, which had declared its neutrality for 30 years, has unexpectedly announced plans to form a military alliance. Even more surprising that it is considering an alliance with Hungary, a member of both the EU and NATO.
This move by Belgrade comes in response to the formation of another military alliance in the region, recently announced by Croatia, Albania (both NATO members), and the partially recognised state of Kosovo.
Read more about this troubling trend in the region in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda editor – The Balkan "iron curtain": how regional countries split into military alliances.
On 18 March, Croatia, Albania, and Kosovo officially announced their military alliance.
It is speculated that Bulgaria may soon join the bloc.
Given that most signatories are full NATO members, this alliance appears to aim at facilitating Kosovo’s integration into NATO, a goal that remains unattainable until its disputes with Serbia are resolved.
"The goal of this cooperation is not to threaten anyone. This is a message to those who intend to threaten the region – we are united and will not allow anyone to destabilise it. This agreement is a declaration to any country that seeks to create instability," said Kosovo’s Defence Minister Ejup Maqedonci.
This message is primarily directed at Serbia. Kosovo’s authorities accuse Serbia of supporting terrorist acts within Kosovo.
For Belgrade, which considers Kosovo an inseparable part of the Serbian state, such developments are particularly provocative.
Serbia’s reaction took many by surprise, even within the country.
Serbian media have reported on plans to establish a military alliance between Serbia and Hungary, with an official agreement possibly being signed soon.
On one hand, this move seems logical. Serbia and Hungary support each other, and their leaders, Aleksandar Vučić and Viktor Orbán, are close allies.
On the other hand, the purpose of this alliance is unclear. It is certainly not aimed at facilitating Serbia’s NATO accession.
Would Hungary be willing to fight alongside Serbia in a conflict with Kosovo, Albania, or Croatia? That also seems highly unlikely.
This ambiguity may explain the delay in finalising the agreement, both sides need to frame it in a way that makes it "significant" without raising concerns within NATO.
Nevertheless, the political message is clear – Serbia is showing that it has a powerful ally within the EU and NATO, one that might defend its interests in a potential conflict.
NATO’s reaction, at least publicly, has been remarkably calm.
These alliances do not violate NATO’s statutes, and the presence of peacekeeping forces allows the Alliance to maintain full control over the region’s stability.
However, a shift in US foreign policy could weaken this strong NATO presence in the Balkans.
In that case, the current military alliances, now seen as part of a political struggle, could become a real dividing factor in the Balkans. And from division, the region could be just a step away from renewed conflict.