How Russia outmaneuvered US in Saudi Arabia talks and what comes next
On Tuesday, another round of peace talks concluded in Saudi Arabia, where the US engaged in separate negotiations with Ukraine and Russia. This round marked the second consecutive failure for Washington.
Notably, his administration, usually eager to exaggerate its achievements, refrained from declaring any "success" this time.
To some extent, Russia emerged as the winner of this round.
Read more about the "technical" talks in Riyadh in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, European Pravda's editor – Ceasefire on Moscow’s terms? How peace talks in Riyadh made US redraw its red lines on Ukraine.
In Saudi Arabia, the Kremlin secured US acceptance of its version of an "energy ceasefire," which primarily imposes restrictions on Ukraine rather than on Russia.
The key outcome: the leaders of Russia and Ukraine confirmed that they consider a halt to strikes on energy infrastructure to be in effect.
Putin confirmed this in a press release on the Kremlin's website. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that the ceasefire took effect on the evening of 25 March, coinciding with the release of the White House press statement.
If the "energy ceasefire" holds, Ukraine will be obliged to refrain from targeting nearly all the objectives it has recently been striking with long-range drones.
Crucially, Ukraine’s gas production facilities, which have been heavily targeted by Russian missile strikes in recent months, are absent from this list.
At least, that’s the implication of the Kremlin's published list of protected sites in Russia and Ukraine.
Importantly, this is not just a unilateral Russian statement but a "list agreed upon by both the Russian and American sides," according to the Kremlin. More than 12 hours after its publication, Washington had neither disputed nor denied this claim.
Meanwhile, Russia continues its missile strikes on Ukrainian oil and gas production sites, many of which are concentrated in the Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy insists that the US is aware of Kyiv’s broader demands regarding the "energy ceasefire." However, the reality is that Russia considers its restrictions on strikes to be much narrower and insists that the US has accepted this narrower scope. There is no doubt that the Kremlin deliberately created this ambiguity.
What is more, Russia refused to halt airstrikes on civilian infrastructure.
The maritime ceasefire agreement poses even greater problems. Russia expects to receive US assistance in exporting Russian agricultural products and fertilisers while, in return, securing control over civilian navigation to Ukraine.
Remarkably, the US even promised Moscow to lift sanctions imposed by Europe! Who exactly will negotiate this with European partners remains unclear, but Ukraine will likely be pressured to play a role.
The Riyadh talks did have two positive aspects for Ukraine. The US did not pressure Kyiv to cross its red lines. Additionally, Washington consulted with Ukraine even in areas where it had no obligation to do so.
For now, the next steps remain uncertain.
Kyiv hopes that, as is often the case, the Kremlin will ultimately break its promises to the US, fundamentally altering the situation. However, there are no guarantees that this will happen.