What new challenges does Europe face, and how should Germany's new government address them?
President Donald Trump’s radical changes to US foreign policy have led many to suspect that he wants to align America more with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the long term.
A better description of the situation is that Trump has turned not so much toward Russia as away from Europe.
In Trump’s view, the Ukraine war and America’s obligations toward European allies are costly obstacles to national greatness. He believes that the US can dominate the world single-handedly if it dispenses with rules, norms, and international commitments.
Read more in the column by Sigmar Gabriel, Germany's Vice Chancellor (2013-2018), and Peter Eitel, Senior Director for Geopolitical Risks at FTI Consulting (Germany) – Germany’s comeback: what will help Europe find its place in the new world.
The authors believe that Europe is nonetheless becoming the fulcrum of world politics once again.
"Trump thinks he has unburdened America by abandoning Europe, but the Russians and Chinese know better. They are all too eager to exploit the breakdown of the transatlantic alliance. Ultimately, Trump, Xi, and Putin will each try to divide Europe, albeit for their own reasons," Gabriel and Eitel warn.
They underline that Europe’s technological, economic, and military potential is substantial. Europeans’ success or failure at realizing it will determine the future world order.
Until now, the EU’s need for unanimity has rendered it ineffective and too slow to act, owing to the considerable differences between its member states.
"Thus, the first task is to develop a new structure for cooperation," emphasise the former Vice Chancellor of Germany and the Senior Director for Geopolitical Risks at FTI Consulting.
According to them, the recently proclaimed "coalition of the willing" in support of Ukraine is a first major step toward freeing ourselves from dependency on the US.
Sigmar Gabriel and Peter Eitel emphasise that with France and the UK (each a nuclear power) continuing to lead, the group should create a provisional security council to work toward establishing a European defence union that also includes Germany, Poland, and Italy.
"This council can clarify the coalition’s relationship with the EU and NATO, determine members’ contributions to conventional and nuclear deterrence, and coordinate military support for Ukraine," the authors write.
Europe also must find new sources of economic strength. Beyond reducing bureaucracy and creating attractive conditions for companies, Europe needs stronger incentives to promote innovation and research and development.
The authors warn that if Europe cannot marshal the resources to attract the world’s top researchers and most innovative companies, it will not achieve the dynamism that it needs.
The German experts believe that a successful German "pivot to Europe" requires a robust, dynamic German economy.
"Merz and his future coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, clearly recognise how much Europe’s fate depends on Germany stepping up to promote European integration. So, too, does French President Emmanuel Macron, who is already working in close coordination with the incoming German leadership," the authors write.
They remind us that even before taking office, incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz has sent a powerful signal to the world: Germany is back, and it is back in an altogether different way.
The vast sums of money promised to strengthen its defence posture and infrastructure show that these are not empty words.
"But Germany can also help Europe by remaining a strong voice for dialogue and diplomacy, even as it embarks on a new defense-building drive," they conclude.