How Trump’s threats united Canada ahead of election and what to expect for Ukraine
On 23 March, newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the dissolution of Parliament and called for a snap national election for 28 April.
The dissolution itself was not a surprise. Carney was merely following through on a bipartisan agreement approved earlier this year.
However, the surge in support for the Liberals (the prime minister’s party), giving them a real chance of securing a majority government, was unexpected.
And it all happened thanks to Donald Trump. In fact, countering the policies of the US president has become a central theme in this election. The need to oppose Trump is a consensus among all Canadian parties, just like the necessity of supporting Ukraine.
Read more about what Mark Carney is doing to counter Trump and how Canada may change after the election in the article by Dmytro Sherengovsky of the Dnistryanskyi Center – Elections amid Trump’s threats: How US interference completely reshaped Canada’s political landscape.
Carney’s first move as prime minister was to coordinate efforts with provinces and territories to create a united front against the looming trade war with the United States.
At a meeting with regional leaders, he secured a fundamental agreement to remove internal interprovincial trade barriers by 1 July and improve domestic logistics if the Liberals win the election.
This single measure, according to preliminary estimates, could reduce trade costs by up to 15% and boost economic growth by 8%. It would also represent one of the most significant economic reforms in Canada’s history, one that previous governments talked about but never implemented.
Symbolically, this step also signals that despite internal differences, Canada can present a unified voice.
Additionally, Carney’s government has begun reviewing a list of potential retaliatory tariffs on American goods to maximise pressure on the US while minimising harm to Canadian consumers.
Despite the limitations of a "caretaker government," Carney’s team has made clear its commitment to strengthening national defence.
During the campaign, Carney pledged an "unprecedented" increase in defence spending.
Understanding that confronting Trump requires international backing, Carney made his first foreign visit as prime minister, not to the US, as his predecessors did, but to Europe.
The message was clear: Canada is not isolated. European partners are also wary of Trump’s trade policies and are interested in defending international norms.
Reports indicate that Carney discussed a coordinated response to the US's proposed 25% tariff on car imports, which would also impact European automakers.
Furthermore, the prime minister has held talks with Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum.
Many analysts believe Carney’s Liberal Party has presented the most comprehensive strategy for protecting Canada’s interests, and this is reflected in the polls.
According to major polling agencies cited by CBC on 26 March, the Liberals have 40% voter support, their highest rating in four years. This gives them a strong chance not only of remaining in power but also of securing a majority government, with a 65% probability of an improved electoral outcome.
The most likely election scenario remains a Liberal victory, but without a majority.
This scenario is considered relatively stable, as nearly all parties, except the Conservatives, are inclined to support Carney’s leadership.
Beyond trade tensions with the US, another major international issue at the heart of this election is Canada’s continued support for Ukraine.
All major federal parties have pledged to maintain their backing for Ukraine in the ongoing war.