German intelligence: Putin prepares for war with NATO
Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and the country's armed forces estimate that Russia views the West as a systemic enemy, is building up its military power and preparing for a large-scale confrontation with NATO.
According to Bild, it has been argued that Putin's empire is ready to use military force to realise its imperialist goals. The assessment, which is also reported by the Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR and NDR, suggests that Putin will not be satisfied with Ukraine alone. By the end of the decade, Russia is likely to have created all the necessary conditions to be able to wage a "large-scale conventional war".
The Lithuanian Intelligence Service (VSD) believes that Russia is not yet in a position to wage a large-scale conventional war against NATO in the medium term. However, limited military action against one or more NATO countries is possible.
Putin is allegedly planning to test how seriously NATO countries actually take the obligation to provide assistance under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty in case of emergency.
The BND report indicates that while three-quarters of Russian soldiers and equipment from the Baltic border regions are currently in Ukraine, the air force and navy are on full alert. If the war in Ukraine ends, Russian units will be redeployed back to the region.
Despite heavy losses and Western sanctions, Putin continues to arm himself. The Bundeswehr and the BND report that Russia's military economy produces more than it needs for the war in Ukraine.
By 2026, the size of the Russian Armed Forces should be increased to 1.5 million soldiers. According to the plans for 2022, the number of personnel, weapons and military equipment of the Russian Federation on the border with NATO should be increased by 30-50%.
It is noted that the Kremlin is increasing military spending at a dizzying pace. By 2025, they will amount to about €120 billion, which corresponds to more than 6% of GDP. Thus, Russia has almost quadrupled its military budget compared to 2021.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently promised a devastating response to Putin for an attack on Poland or any other NATO country.