How Trump’s team’s support could bring openly anti-Ukrainian forces to power in Romania

Romania seemed like an island of stability amid the region’s high political turbulence for a long time.

The events of late last year, however, served as a warning sign, showing that things are far from calm and stable.

And this year has only intensified those risks.

Read more about the growing risk of an far-right politician winning Romania’s presidential elections and what consequences this could have in an article by Serhii Herasymchuk of the Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism – The perfect storm on Ukraine’s border: why a pro-Russian populist could lead Romania.

The events of the past few months have completely shattered the perception of Romania as a stronghold of political stability.

The country’s presidential elections had to be cancelled after an far-right candidate with anti-European and pro-Russian views, Călin Georgescu, won the first round.

Moreover, he actively manipulated public opinion through social media and, according to Romania’s intelligence services, received support from the Kremlin.

The parliamentary elections on 1 December 2024, further underscored the country’s political shift: nearly a third of the seats went to far-right parties, including the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), the SOS Romania party, and the Young People’s Party (POT).

All these political forces are now directly or indirectly backing Georgescu’s second attempt to win the Romanian presidency in the elections scheduled for May.

Additionally, speculation is growing that Georgescu is not only relying on his far-right compatriots and Russian sponsors but also on the new US administration.

And there is some evidence to support this. At the Munich Security Conference, US Vice President J.D. Vance mentioned Romania’s presidential elections several times in his speech, expressing outrage that the country’s Constitutional Court annulled the results due to the victory of an anti-European candidate in the first round.

Elon Musk also added fuel to the fire by criticising the Romanian authorities’ actions against Georgescu.

Furthermore, Georgescu has been linked to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the newly appointed US Secretary of Health.

With support from Russia, the US, and the Romanian far-right, Georgescu could well become the country’s next president.

At the very least, this would create serious tensions between the president and the government. Georgescu has vowed to topple the current Prime Minister, Marcel Ciolacu, and the ruling coalition is well aware of this threat.

Romanian authorities may try to remove Georgescu from the race.

A court ruling on 28 February placed him under judicial supervision, prohibiting him from leaving the country or appearing in the media, including social media.

The charges against him are serious: incitement against the constitutional order, spreading false information, financial fraud, and facilitating foreign influence.

As the investigation progresses, more evidence could emerge to justify his disqualification from the elections.

If this happens, the far-right has a Plan B.

AUR leader George Simion has announced that he would step in to carry Georgescu’s banner and run on his political platform.

At that point, events could take a very unexpected turn.

Simion could present himself as a more "compromise" candidate.

However, for Ukraine, this scenario remains deeply concerning.