Why anti-Ukrainian rhetoric weakened Poland’s leading parties

Anti-Ukrainian sentiment, which has shaped Poland’s ongoing presidential campaign, has led to significant shifts in candidate rankings.

A recent SW Research poll revealed that far-right Confederation party candidate Sławomir Mentzen, known for his openly anti-Ukrainian stance, has for the first time gained a real chance of advancing to the second round, securing nearly 19% support.

Read more about the secret behind Mentzen’s success in the column by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor – Why anti-Ukrainian moves didn’t help Poland’s presidential front-runners.

Yurii Panchenko notes that the campaign of the Confederation candidate currently appears more dynamic and engaging, with Sławomir Mentzen gaining momentum.

According to the author, the formally independent candidate, but de facto nominee of the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, Karol Nawrocki, is losing ground. He has slipped from second to third place, with a rating of 16.5%.

Polish media reports suggest that this unfavourable trend has already forced PiS leadership to discuss the possibility of an urgent replacement. Fortunately for them, this remains an option, as the party has not formally nominated a candidate yet, meaning they can still do so.

"The possibility of Mentzen reaching the second round could completely upend the entire electoral landscape," the editor predicts.

On the one hand, he notes, the leadership of the ruling party’s candidate and current Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, is undeniable. He holds 33.6% of voter support. On the other hand, Mentzen could prove to be a far more dangerous opponent in the second round, as he is not associated with either the current or previous government.

However, the recent shift in Polish electoral preferences has another dimension, one directly linked to Ukraine, the author points out.

For a long time, Panchenko recalls, Confederation was the only Polish political force openly promoting anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. Now, it has become mainstream.

The "pro-Ukrainian consensus" among Polish parties was ultimately shattered as candidates from the two main parties scrambled for Sławomir Mentzen’s anti-Ukrainian electorate.

For instance, Rafał Trzaskowski suddenly proposed limiting the 800+ social benefits for Ukrainians – a move that Donald Tusk’s government quickly endorsed.

"According to the logic of Poland’s leading party candidates, such steps were supposed to give them an advantage in the second round. However, it seems they have had the opposite effect, making anti-Ukrainian rhetoric fully acceptable. But then it suddenly turned out that in this field, Confederation has no real competition, and this new reality only enhanced its legitimacy," Panchenko states.

At the same time, he argues, there is at least one more reason for the surge in anti-Ukrainian rhetoric among Polish politicians – the victory of Donald Trump in the US, which has given a "second wind" to Europe’s far-right movements.

"The numerous anti-Ukrainian statements coming from the White House over the past month appear to have completely removed the taboo on such rhetoric among Polish politicians. This is especially true for PiS, where such sentiments always existed but were long discouraged," Panchenko writes.

But does the opposition Law and Justice party realise that in Trump’s second term, Confederation might look like a more natural partner than traditional conservatives?

It seems this realisation is already sinking in. Notably, after the latest polls were published, PiS finally began criticising Confederation for "fueling hatred toward Ukraine and Ukrainians."

The key question is whether it will be too late...