What prevents a replacement for the US as leader of the democratic world
US President Donald Trump’s betrayal of America’s traditional allies, humiliation of Ukraine, encouragement of right-wing extremism, and embrace of belligerent autocrats will push European and East Asian democracies to form new defense alliances.
The need for a new order is indisputable. But so, too, are the hurdles. Just as European and Asian democracies must confront a hostile coalition of autocracies.
Read more about the challenges they may face in creating new alliances in a column by Dutch writer Ian Buruma, originally published on Project Syndicate – The new leader of the democratic world: who can replace the United States?
Buruma argues that we are witnessing the end of the Pax Americana era.
According to him, Pax Americana in Asia and Europe had to end at some point.
He acknowledges that an arrangement whereby many wealthy countries depend wholly on one superpower for their security was never a healthy long-term arrangement. But the timing and manner of its demise could not be worse.
However, he laments that the timing and manner of its demise could not be worse.
"Just as European and Asian democracies must confront a hostile coalition of autocracies – Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea – their protector threatens to withdraw its backing, leaving little time to rebuild a solid defense," Buruma writes.
Buruma argues that an effective European military alliance won’t succeed without the leadership of Germany, the bloc’s largest economy.
But he sees several obstacles in the way.
First, it might not be shared by enough Germans, who are still nervous about reviving a military disposition that ruined much of Europe – including Germany itself – not so long ago.
Second, others in the country have embraced a pro-Russia stance. In Germany’s recent federal election, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, which is sympathetic to Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and opposed to supporting Ukraine, finished second.
In East and Southeast Asia, the situation is even more fraught.
Unlike Britain and France, none of America’s Asian allies has nuclear weapons. And there is no equivalent of NATO to protect against China’s increasing dominance.
America’s backing is also crucial for Southeast Asian countries seeking to shield themselves from Chinese aggression.
And then there is Taiwan, which has no formal security pact with the US at all.
"If Trump is prepared to sacrifice Ukraine to make a deal with Putin, he might be just as inclined to barter away Taiwan’s democracy to do business with Chinese President Xi Jinping," Buruma warns.
He believes that forming an Asian NATO would encounter a problem similar to the one facing a European alliance.
"Japan is the only country powerful enough to lead such a disparate coalition. But many in Asia are wary of giving such a large role to a country long governed by a conservative party whose leaders have been reluctant to acknowledge their forebears’ horrific actions in World War II.
And most Japanese – like many Germans – are not quite ready to trust themselves," he writes.
Buruma also warns of the danger that America’s forsaken allies will panic and run for cover, pleading for protection from one the great powers, like China or Russia.
"None of this is a given. Perhaps the Europeans will get their act together. Perhaps Trump’s bark is worse than his bite. Perhaps the Americans won’t withdraw from Asia. But no one should count on any of this happening," he concludes.