Why the verdict against Le Pen is dangerous for France

31 March witnessed a political earthquake in France with potentially long-lasting consequences.

A Paris criminal court found Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally party, guilty of embezzling public funds, specifically, EU funds. She was sentenced to four years in prison, including two years under house arrest with an electronic bracelet.

Le Pen was also fined €100,000, but the most significant penalty is a five-year ban from holding public office.

Read more about the case and its potential consequences in the article by Yurii Panchenko, Eur/opean Pravda's editor - Pleasant but dangerous: what the verdict means for "Putin’s friend" Marine Le Pen.

The case revolves around fraudulent employment contracts signed between 2004 and 2016 while Le Pen was an MEP. EU funds meant for parliamentary assistants were instead used to support party activities, including election campaigns.

From the start of the trial, Le Pen did not attempt to deny the charges, as the evidence was overwhelming. Instead, she framed the case as politically motivated, hoping to limit her sentence to a fine or suspended term, but not a political ban.

Prosecutors had sought a five-year prison sentence (three years probation), a €300,000 fine, and a five-year ban from public office. While the court’s ruling was somewhat more lenient, the political ban remained intact, making it the most significant part of the punishment.

Meanwhile, other National Rally members implicated in the same scheme received much lighter sentences, reinforcing suspicions of political bias. Le Pen’s legal team is expected to appeal, aiming to overturn or at least reduce the political ban.

"This is not just an unjust sentence against Marine Le Pen. It is the execution of French democracy," said Jordan Bardella, National Rally’s president and a potential candidate for the next presidential election.

While strong reactions from the far-right were expected, even centrist and mainstream politicians voiced concern, with some calling the ruling a "judicial coup."

The next two years could be turbulent for France. The verdict against Le Pen raises the likelihood of government instability, potential resignations, and early parliamentary elections. However, the biggest risk is the possible "Trumpification" of French politics, with the ruling fueling populist narratives and deepening political divides.