Why the US leaving NATO is real and how Europe is responding

Last night, US President Donald Trump crossed yet another red line in international relations. In a formal setting and live on air, he signed an executive order launching a large-scale trade war against nearly every other country in the world.

In essence, the US has withdrawn from the structured framework of global trade while simultaneously breaking its rules. On top of that, reports have emerged in recent days that Washington has stopped paying its contributions to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). 

And even a US exit from NATO is becoming more likely.

Foreign ministers from NATO member-states met in Brussels on Thursday, hoping to receive clarification from their American counterpart, Marco Rubio, concerning the US’s intentions, including with regard to the Alliance.  

Read more about possible scenarios for NATO's future and how the Alliance's leadership is trying to prevent the worst-case outcomes in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, European Pravda's editor – With Trump at any cost? What Europe is ready to sacrifice to keep NATO united and US as ally.

NATO officials all the way up to its top leadership flatly reject the idea that the US’s cooperation with the Alliance will change in any way.  According to them, the US is committed to Article 5.

However, these assurances from the secretary general, whether they are sincere or politically necessary, are incomplete without an explanation of why he considers US cooperation irreplaceable for the other members of NATO.  

Yet just two days after the NATO secretary general had assured everyone of America's steadfast support and its readiness to defend the other members of the Alliance, those hopes were effectively shattered.  

The Washington Post published details of a secret Pentagon strategy, revealing that the US is considering only one scenario for military intervention in the event of an attack by a hostile state. And that ally is not a NATO member, but Taiwan, which the US plans to defend if China launches a military assault.  

The secret memo also acknowledges that this shift in strategy increases the risk of a Russian attack on Europe without offering any plans to address it. 

Nearly a full week has passed since the report surfaced, and the Pentagon has not denied its contents. On 2 April, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte essentially confirmed that he is treating the memo as a real and serious development.  

And this is far from the only sign that the US is losing interest in NATO and its defenсe commitments.

It is important to emphasise that the reassuring statements from Mark Rutte and other NATO officials are not being accepted as absolute truth by allied governments. On the contrary, there is evidence that key European states are already working on a plan to gradually replace the US within the Alliance.  

Even within NATO, officials have privately acknowledged that a US withdrawal from Europe is not just a possibility but a very real prospect, as multiple European Pravda sources have confirmed.  

However, no one knows to what extent the US will reduce its security presence in Europe or when it will happen.

The best-case scenario would be a negotiated transition in which the US hands over responsibility to its European partners over a 5-10 year period. 

But does Trump even want this kind of "soft" transition?

Washington has made no secret of its irritation over Europe's intention to buy fewer US weapons. If Europe expands its own defence industry, it will become even less dependent on the US, something the US defence sector is unlikely to welcome.  

That means less favourable scenarios cannot be ruled out, including a rapid withdrawal of some US forces and military equipment from Europe, economic pressure on European governments to replace US arms purchases, and more aggressive demands for Europeans to increase their defence spending.

And then there is the worst-case scenario: a US exit from NATO's military command structure. There is a historical precedent for this.

Europeans understand this and are willing to do almost anything to remain under US protection, at least for the time being.