Can Moldova Abandon Neutrality and Join NATO?

NATO Membership of the Republic of Moldova? Even a year ago, such an assumption would have sounded absurd.

Even now, almost a year since the full-scale aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, which simultaneously threatens neighbouring Moldova, there are many internal obstacles in the way of such membership.

However, the President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, launched a trial bullet and lifted the taboo on geopolitical topics, which she strictly adhered to during her election campaign.

She was careful to say that Chisinau might consider joining "larger alliances" and made it clear that neutrality was not a sacred cow for her and the government.

President Sandu's statement caused a stir not only in the Moldovan political community but also in Russia.

The Russian Foreign Ministry threatens Moldova that its NATO membership might lead to the disintegration of the state.

The Russians are allegedly hinting at pro-Russian Gagauzia to become another Transnistria.

After all, when Dmitri Rogozin was still in charge of Moldova, he had already voiced such a threat.

And the head of Gagauzia, Irina Vlakh, is outraged that "Moldova is arming itself." She accuses the government of Moldova that the Piranha armoured vehicles provided by Germany could stir up a new phase of the Transnistrian conflict.

The scandalous ex-president Igor Dodon accused Maia Sanda of working for "overseas bosses" and underlined that Moldovans did not want to become cannon fodder in NATO's war against Russia.

Why did Maia Sandu take such a dangerous step ahead of the local elections in the autumn of 2023? After all, against their background, many people want to criticize the president.

On the one hand, in this way, the President of Moldova put it all on her. On the other hand, it gave the opposition a chance to scold each other for the priority in criticising her initiatives. Therefore, to mutually exhaust each other even before the election campaign.

Instead, Maia Sandu herself and her political force "Action and Solidarity" could use the topic of security as their trump card. While everyone is arguing, the responsible president and government are looking for ways to secure weak and vulnerable Moldova.

What about the reality of Moldova's NATO membership prospects?

It could be possible. However, the country's neutrality is enshrined in its constitution.

Given the mood of the political forces both in the parliament and outside, it will be difficult to find allies to correct this historical mistake.

Sandu will not gain a constitutional majority either in the current parliament or in the future.

But how can a state that has troops of another state on its territory be neutral?

And here, with a certain skill in the art of political speculation, it is possible to start the cautious discussion announced by Sandu.

Even if such a scenario is a bluff, it is rather elegant. It lets her demonstrate loyalty to the West, demonstrate a determination to the Russians, and demonstrate readiness to fight to political opponents.